The indexes are off this Monday morning almost 1/2%. @CL -1% TLT +.35% and $Vix.x +10.38%
This is a bearish configuration. There is a reasonable chance of a trend day down today. Whenever you get Vix.x plus over 7% the downside is usually the way things go.
We are overbought so a pullback is overdue. What to watch for? The duration and % drop of the pullback.
I doubt I will be trading to the long side this morning on swings. There will be a strong headwind. As far as short trades right now I do not have any on my radar.
I exited my short FXE on Friday for about a 1.5% gain. I am still long TLT and am underwater on this trade for now.
I suspect that the upcoming public star chamber in the House has made the markets nervous. Schiff is ruling the proceedings in a way that Goebels would be proud of him. No due process, No witnesses approved by the other side, no attorneys allowed (except of course lawfare to help Schiff out). A real true to life star chamber designed to overthrow the presidency.
So as an outside observer looking in, for a country that prides itself on due process, and equal protection under the law, how can this be happening? Where are the checks and balances that would prevent a totalitarian event like this to occur?
Well, the answer is the U.S. political and justice system has broken down. It’s that simple. Years of corruption, years of voter apathy, years of extremists infiltration the U.S. teaching institutions and of course the infiltration of the media have created the perfect storm for the U.S.
Human nature is a delicate thing. You can behold untold kindness and beauty from humans on one end of the spectrum but on the other end, you can behold horrors that beyond comprehension. This is nothing new. It has been going on for 1000s of years. It would be illogical to think it would change because after all, humans are human.
What has changed is the horror end is now reaching the shores of the U.S. They have been isolated to a degree observing the horrors in other countries, like Germany and the Holocaust, the genocide in Africa, the human rights abuses in China, and I could go on and on.
But there has been a shift. It started in Western Europe where we have seen first hand the results. And is now here in the U.S. And Americans are acting like a deer in headlights. They watch with amazement and go on with their lives like nothing is happening. Can you blame them? After all, Americans have had it very good here. Freedoms that almost no one else in the world has.
So, in their defense, I can see why they are not that concerned. And many get their news from the mainstream media. So, of course, they are being brainwashed into thinking the problem is Trump Trump Trump. There are thinking Americans that observe and know what is going on. They are not only Republicans but also Democrats and independents that are worried. And rightfully so.
I am an oddsmaker. A handicapper. I quantify things that tend to be unquantifiable. That has always been my long suit over the years. Anyone can quantify the quantifiable, but the unquantifiable requires a certain skill. And without bragging I have it. I always have as long as I can remember.
I have friends that are mathematically inclined that I could not begin to think the way they process. I have had many bridge partners that were in that category. And I have seen many poker players that excelled at that. But give them a situation that is not prone to mathematical analysis and they tend to be lost.
What we are observing now in the U.S. falls into the unquantifiable. And the conclusions I am coming to disturb me. When you have a star chamber in the House with no protections that is a continuation of a coup to overthrow the President that started on day 1, and you have bands of Antifa roaming around terrorizing innocent people with our politicians either remaining silent or encouraging them, something is way off in the U.S. Not somewhat off, but way off.
I am not going to quantify anything right now for you as it will depress you. But let’s leave it that I am not optimistic as to the outcome of how the U.S. transforms when all is said and done.
At this point, it would require extreme measures to reverse what is occurring. Measures that Americans have no stomach for. But in 5 to 10 years they will have wished they did.
So where does this leave us on the markets? For the time being, we are in the best six months of the year but we are approaching the star chamber and an eventual trial in the Senate. This will not be good for the markets, nor will it be good for the American people. The media will be in high gear with 24/7 propaganda and the pressure on the Senate if it gets that far will be like none you have seen before.
There will be bribes, blackmail, death threats, all designed to get our Senators to convict Trump. They will be attacked in the media. It will not be a pretty sight.
So I expect that before long the markets are going to fall. Until this gets straightened out one way or another.
Let’s look at the political odds before I leave this morning:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 46/54 No Change
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 79/21 No Change ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 18/82 No Change (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 79/21 +1 Pt (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 42/58 +1 Pt
Warren: 19/81 No Change
Biden: 13/77 +1 Pt
Buttigieg 11/89 No Change
Sanders 10/90 +1 Pt
Bloomberg 4/96 -4 Pts
Clinton 4/96 No Change
LA Governor’s race 60/40 Democrat Favored No Change I laid 57/43 ( I sold my shares for a 15% gain in 2 weeks) That is 360% annualized:) -10 PTS
KY Governor’s race 96/4 Democrat I laid 65/35( I sold this out before the election for a 15% gain) This is still considered too close to call, a Recount is in the works. No change
MS Governor’s race 99-1 Republic Favored +11 Pts I laid 87/13 This wager was a win.
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 43/57 – 1 Pt I laid 40/60
No real significant changes. The odds are not giving Bloomberg much of a chance at getting the nomination.
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RickJ’s Handicapping Picks