Indexes are hovering around the 0 line this morning waiting to hear from the President on Trade. That speech comes around 7 AM PST. @CL is +1/2% TLT about unchanged and Vix.x +1%.
Monday was an interesting day with Vix.x +10% but slowly all day the market rebounded as vix.x fell. It’s important to watch what vix.x is doing. Have the chart up on the screen, 5 min is fine, to see what the trend is. That is a very good tell.
I exited my long TLT Afterhours yesterday for a loss. So now have no swings going. Just income trades and my portfolio.
The markets are waiting to hear from the President on Trade. A speech coming up in an hour or so. I do not expect any movement until after the speech. Also, the President has indicated there is a transcript of another Ukraine call that preceded the one all the hysteria is about. I suspect that should be interesting:)
It is really the twilight zone that there is all this hysteria over the phone call, considering the real crimes that have been committed by many of our politicians. Conducting foreign policy is not a crime. Even if you took the argument of the left in the worst light, Trump has done nothing wrong. But the worst light is not even close to reality as the transcript and the testimony has shown.
Dershowitz said it best. The House proceedings are no different then what you would have seen under Stalin. Dershowitz is one of the leading constitutional law experts in the world and is a liberal.
He has hit it about as accurate as you can get. I never thought I would see in America, proceedings of this nature where all due process, all constitutional rights, are intentionally suppressed to further a takedown of a sitting President. But here we are. Politics has reached a point where it is a very destructive element in our society now.
How can it change? That is a tough question as they have already gaslighted so many innocent Americans beyond repair. Human nature what it is people listen to the news and they think they are experts, essentially repeating what the media tells them. After all, everyone wants to be an expert these days.
But, the media has turned into a propaganda machine. And many in the public cannot tell the difference. I have relatives that actually think CNN is a centrist news outlet:) Needless to say, I stay away from politics when around some of my relatives.
But they are intelligent people. They are professionals, educated. And yet they have succumbed to the 24/7 fake news. That is what the left is counting on. It’s a very difficult problem when the media in a country has taken sides and has become a propaganda outlet. Combine that with the vicious attacks of anyone that gets in their way and it becomes fascism.
One needs only look at Ken Fischer, Steve Wynn, the CEO of Mozilla, as some of the examples of people that the left has tried to destroy. And why? They are associated with Conservative campaigns. so it becomes seek and destroy missions, with people working around the clock to uncover anything they can use.
Then when they find something they go to their trained monkeys in the media and its 24/7 attacks. In many instances, if they cannot find anything they make it up.
This has got to stop one way or another. Do not expect Congress to do anything as they are scared to death. Look at the people not running. They have had enough. So they quit.
If this is not reversed, it does not bode well for the future of the U.S.
And this all eventually will spill over into the markets. Not today or tomorrow, but eventually it will happen.
As a Jew, I find it astonishing that some of the worst offenders are left-wing jews. They use the same tactics that have been used against jews for many years. Slander and lies. It astonishes me to see this unfolding. As if there was one subset of people that I would have thought would be sensitive to these tactics it would be Jewish people.
But left-wing Jews in America have lost their way. And in the end, it will be devastating for them.
Now back to the markets:) Watch to see what the President says about trade this morning and watch how the market reacts. How the market reacts is the key as opposed to what he says.
Now onto the political odds:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 44/56 -2 Pts
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 78/22 -1 Pt ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 18/82 No Change (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 78/22 -1 Pt (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 42/58 No Change
Warren: 19/81 No Change
Biden: 13/77 No Change
Buttigieg 11/89 No Change
Sanders 10/90 No Change
Bloomberg 4/96 No Change
Clinton 4/96 No Change
LA Governor’s race 57/43 Democrat Favored No Change I laid 57/43 ( I sold my shares for a 15% gain in 2 weeks) That is 360% annualized:) -3 PTS
KY Governor’s race 96/4 Democrat I laid 65/35( I sold this out before the election for a 15% gain) This is still considered too close to call, a Recount is in the works. No change
MS Governor’s race 99-1 Republic Favored +11 Pts I laid 87/13 This wager was a win.
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 43/57 No Change I laid 40/60
Not much change in the odds. The only wager I have going right now is the Giuliani wager.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
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Have a great day trading:)
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing
Skype: Ricca
