The indexes are higher pre-market about 1/3% with TLT -1/4% @CL -1/8% and Vix.x -1.5%.
This is a slightly positive premarket but it’s still an hour before the open. I am getting an early start this morning:)
The markets keep making all-time highs, ignoring the extreme political dysfunction in the U.S. There is a lot of complacency out there both in the markets and among Americans. Complacency is not good. It pays to be vigilant.
There is an interesting dynamic going on right now that I am not sure what to make of it. McConnell gives a press conference indicating that there will be a trial in the Senate regardless of whether the White House files a motion to dismiss or not. It would require 51 votes in the Senate to dismiss and obviously they do not have those votes even though the Senate is controlled by the Republicans.
Now, what is interesting and I have not heard any talking head on cable bring this up, but why would McConnell raise this at this time? There have been two impeachment votes in the House and both have been defeated. There has been no impeachment yet out of the House. And the odds are only 3 to 1 that they will impeach. So then why would he feel the need to give a press conference expressing this???
I have heard several schools of thought on this. 1. You see what you get. In other words, the Senate is encouraging the House to vote for impeachment as it will guarantee a trial in the Senate. This would be consistent with McConnell and establishment republicans being part and parcel of the swamp. And also would mean a conviction in the Senate is a possibility.
2. Another school of thought is that it is a warning to Democrats that there will be testimony in the Senate that may well expose what the Democrats do not want to come out. And he is giving them fair warning that they will not get a pass in the Senate.
3. Finally, another I have heard is that an 8-week trial will prevent Dems from campaigning for the Senate seats as they will need to be wrapped up in the trial. Therefore giving the President the rallies to bring the Senate seats home, while the Dems are unable to campaign in the primaries.
My initial reaction was to go with the 1st. However, I am leaning more toward the other two. Trump has teamed with McConnell and put a record number of judges on the bench. In addition, I doubt McConnell is ready to retire. And if he betrays Trump, the voters will not only destroy him but will destroy the Republican party.
Sure there are some that think they can fool the base if they remove Trump, but I assure you it is not going to happen. The base is not going to go back to people like Romney, Kristol and the other frauds that have betrayed them time and time again.
So, we will see. Watch the odds. So far they have been going down for conviction. If for some reason they shoot up, then you will know something is in the wind. But until then, there is no reason for alarm. At least not yet:)
Also, watch the markets. If there is a serious threat to the Trump presidency these markets will drop like a rock. It will be a fall you have never seen before. So right now we keep making new highs. That is a good sign for the Trump presidency.
Those are two excellent indicators if you’re following the chances of Trump being removed.
Now if your a TDS sufferer I cannot help you. No one can. Obsessive hate for anyone is not healthy. And if you have it, you need to ask yourself why? Who is pushing your buttons? Why are they pushing your buttons? It does take some introspective ability, but, you owe it to yourself to figure it out. Who wants to have hate in their hearts every day? I assure you it will shorten your lifespan and decrease your quality of life.
That is my tip for the day:)
I have no swing trades on right now, Mean reversion has been a thing of the past right now as the markets make new highs every day. And breakout trades have been minimal for me, more because I am focused on income trading right now. And of course, handicapping.
It is tough to cover all the bases.
Let’s take a look at the political odds this morning:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 43/57 -1 Pt
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 77/23 +2 Pts ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 16/84 No Change (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 81/19 + 2 Pts (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 42/58 +1 Pt
Warren: 17/83 No Change
Biden: 14/76 +1 Pt
Buttigieg 11/89 No Change
Sanders 10/90 No Change
Bloomberg 5/95 + 1 Pt
Clinton 4/96 – 1 Pt
LA Governor’s race 58/42 Democrat Favored No Change I laid 57/43 ( I sold my shares for a 15% gain in 2 weeks) That is 360% annualized:) No Change
KY Governor’s race 96/4 Democrat I laid 65/35( I sold this out before the election for a 15% gain) This is still considered too close to call, a Recount is in the works. It looks like The Democrat won this one. As the line is now off the board.
MS Governor’s race 99-1 Republic Favored +11 Pts I laid 87/13 This wager was a win.
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 40/60 +3 Pts I laid 40/60
The only wager I have going right now is Giuliani. I am right where I bought in, and I am hoping to sell it off at a 20% profit. Once the IG report comes out and Durham goes to work I expect that to happen. As reality should be set in that Giuliani is not getting indicted for anything. I know the media is spinning it the other way. But what else is new:) The media creates value.
That is about the only positive thing I can say about them at this point.
The bottom line is the odds are over 4 to 1 now that the Senate will not convict and over 4 to 1 that Trump gets the nomination. Those odds do not reflect someone that is about to be removed from office:)
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If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
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Have a great day trading:)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks