Markets are slightly lower this morning. TLT +1/5% @CL -1% and vix.x +7%
This is a negative premarket to me and expect a pullback shortly after the open.
Before I forget be sure and read http://dashofinsight.com
It will give you a good heads up on the upcoming week and some of the issues facing the markets. In addition, they put recession risk at minimal right now and a year out. This is important to know as the political operatives will be out in full force to try to influence 2020 by painting a dim view of the economy when the exact opposite is true.
I made a swing long Friday, which I am not very optimistic about this morning. But the setup was there, so let’s see how it plays out.
The market has held up well with the impeachment proceedings proceeding now. This will be a busy week and I am going to try to stay away from viewing them as they are a big time waster.
I do not listen to the spin either or the cable commentary. I have a few people I follow that give an objective account, that is all I need.
Incredibly there are still people that listen to the media for their news and opinions. Big mistake. Not only from a trading standpoint but from a reality standpoint also. The media now has become pure propaganda, driven by ideology, sensationalism to driver viewership, and corruption.
It is a model that is broken beyond repair and is ripe for a new media to step in that is traditionally based and is back to real factual reporting. There are several out there but they do not have access to the cable markets. It has become a closed system.
Lets take a look at the political odds:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 41/59 -2 Pts
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 78/22 +1 Pt ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 15/85 -1 Pt (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 80/20 -1 Pt (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 42/58 No Change
Warren: 16/84 – 1 Pt
Biden: 14/76 No Change
Buttigieg 14/86 +3 Pts
Sanders 10/90 No Change
Bloomberg 5/95 + 1 Pt
Clinton 3/97 – 1 Pt
LA Governor’s race 58/42 Democrat Favored No Change I laid 57/43 ( I sold my shares for a 15% gain in 2 weeks) That is 360% annualized:) Democrats won, glad I sold my shares:)
KY Governor’s race 96/4 Democrat I laid 65/35( I sold this out before the election for a 15% gain) This is still considered too close to call, a Recount is in the works. It looks like The Democrat won this one. It is over Democrat won, another where I sold my shares.
MS Governor’s race 99-1 Republic Favored +11 Pts I laid 87/13 This wager was a win.
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 40/60 +3 Pts I laid 38/62 -2 Pts
I plan on selling This wager with a 10 to 20% gain after the IG report hits or the Durham report hits. That should send this higher.
The odds of the Senate convicting has reached a new low this morning at 15/85. As I said, this is the one to watch. Forget what the media is spinning on this one.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Have a great day trading:)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks