Markets are higher pre-market lead by the Nasdaq and hour before the open. TLT +.15% @CL -1.24% vix.x -1.28%.
This is a neutral configuration to me. The markets are overbought in the short run and are due for a pullback. Saying that we are in the holiday season and this is typically a very strong period. Combine the low-interest-rate environment with the Fed increasing its portfolio and I suspect and pullbacks will be short-lived.
The one caveat to that is the impeachment proceedings. They start live again today. Any negative surprises for Trump would affect the markets. Not that I am expecting any. Remember, the media will be spinning everything in the worse light. Believe nothing you hear from the media. Either listen to it yourself or have a few reliable people to follow. Nonpartisan people.
I still have on a swing trade from last week and my usual income trades and portfolio. Needless to say, they are doing very well right now.
I have on a stock that I have been selling calls against. I bought a large amount of the stock and have managed to generate quite a bit of income each month without getting called away. Its been close on a few occasions, but it’s been something I have not seen for a while. The stock is very volatile so the premiums are high. Which generates a lot of income each month. I suspect this will end eventually as I get the stock called. Then I will search for another one.
I got into a twitter discussion yesterday about the debt, and how the eventual collapse of the entire system will occur. My position is that since economists rarely get their projections correct over 50% of the time, it is hard to imagine a layperson like myself and others can do better than speculate what the future brings. This is a very complex area. Many moving parts, some known and some unknown. I do not think anyone can make an educated guess what the future holds. Now there are some that are pretty sharp. And they have predicted let’s say the housing crash.
But consider, that there are 1000s of predictions going at any one time. Many opposite of each other. So naturally, someone is going to be correct:) You have to take this into account when listening to predictions.
Let’s take a look at the odds this morning and see if there has been any significant change.
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 39/61 -2 Pts
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 78/22 No Change ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 17/83 +2 Pts (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 79/19 -1 Pt (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 42/58 No Change
Warren: 16/84 – 1 Pt
Biden: 14/76 No Change
Buttigieg 13/87 -1 Pt
Sanders 10/90 No Change
Bloomberg 6/94 + 1 Pt
Clinton 3/97 No Change
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 40/60 No Change I laid 38/62
I plan on selling This wager with a 10 to 20% gain after the IG report hits or the Durham report hits. That should send this higher.
Very little change. I look at new wagers each morning and so far have found nothing that looks very attractive. Typically I look for ones that are expiring in 30 to 60 days. Giuliani was so far off I made an exception:)
The US presidential election winner between Dem and Repub has the Dems 54/48 for the Dems. I think they have the wrong favorite here. My guess is it is closer to 2 to 1 in favor of the Republicans, as long as Trump is the nominee. Without Trump, I would suspect they would be at least a 2 to 1 dog. But its a year off and I am not prone to wager on it at this point.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Have a great day trading:)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks