Indexes are hovering around the 0 mark this morning about 30 min before the open. TLT -1/2% @CL +1/2% Vix.x +1%
This is a pretty neutral pre-market. This is in line with the markets working off their overbought condition with a consolidation.
I still have my swing trade in NET. It has moved a bit but now I am around break even on the trade.
We are in the Best time of the year, QQQ leads SPY on a weekly basis, interest rates are low, the fed is expanding its balance sheet again, earnings are good, and it is within the 12 months prior to a presidential election. All systems go, but are they?
There is one big question mark in all of this and that is the impeachment fiasco in the House. No USMCA, No immigration reform, No budget, just 24/7 impeachment.
The absurdity of it all was displayed yesterday when the bombshell that every news media outlet including Fox went with was Sondland. Who had an opinion, nothing else but his opinion? On examination, the absurdity of it all was revealed in full. So after 3 years, 40+ million, they finally have an opinion or a hunch to go on to impeach the President with.
The only question that is in my mind is whether the Dems in the House that are in states that Trump carried will follow Schiff off the cliff. Most likely they will. The pressure that is put on these new House members will be more than they can bear. There will be bribes, threats, and who knows what else to get them over the 50% mark in the House. So I suspect there will be an impeachment. After all, what is more, collateral damage to the Country? That is the way Pelosi operates. She has said as much.
The ironic thing is the House is holding off approving aid to Ukraine in the spending bill. Doing the same thing they are accusing the President of doing. Except, they are actually doing it. You cannot make this stuff up.
It is a real sideshow. And it would be comical if it wasn’t tearing the Country apart. Americans are losing it. They are becoming tribal. Violence is increasing and the political and media rhetoric just keeps ratcheting up. I do not see how this ends well for the country.
I do not see Trump getting removed. I see him getting reelected in 2020. But I see the left become even more unhinged. And unless the Republicans get the House back we are in store for another 4 more years of this insanity.
Not a good prognosis in my opinion.
But it is what it is. And except for that wildcard, It would be full speed ahead for the markets. But we saw yesterday when CNN and Schiff made their misrepresentation of the testimony, the markets quickly went south 200 pts. I just wonder if Schiff is trading prior to his announcements? But after finding out yet again there was no there there, the markets recovered.
I expect more of this going forward. That is why I am cautious right now in the markets.
Let’s take a look at the political odds this morning and see if yesterdays clown show changed things:
Let’s take a look at the odds this morning and see if there has been any significant change.
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 41/59 +2 Pts
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 80/20 +2 Pts ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 13/87 -5 Pts (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 80/20 +1 Pt (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 42/58 No Change
Warren: 15/85 – 1 Pt
Biden: 14/76 No Change
Buttigieg 14/86 +1 Pt
Sanders 10/90 No Change
Bloomberg 5/94 – 1 Pt
Clinton 3/97 No Change
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 38/62 -2 Pts I laid 38/62
I plan on selling This wager with a 10 to 20% gain after the IG report hits or the Durham report hits. That should send this higher.
The only real change is the chance of conviction in the Senate has made a new low at 13/87. Almost 6 to 1 against. This is the one to watch.
The new polling that has been coming out has all been favorable for Trump. And this is polling that has a built-in bias toward the Dem side.
The best wager I can see right now, except for the Guiliani wager is taking the Republicans to win the presidency in 2020. You get 45/55 on a wager that I view as at least 2 to 1 in favor of the Republicans. Now that is assuming Trump is the nominee. If by chance he is not, the Republicans are dead in the water. They will lose all three branches.
It will be ugly as the base will turn on them with a vengeance. And I do not care who they run, it will not matter. The Senators know this very well, and so, as much as some of the establishment Republicans would like to get rid of Trump so it could go back to business as usual for them, they know the consequences. So Trump is safe in the Senate.
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Have a great day trading:)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks