Markets are gaping up this morning by about 1/5th %, underwhelmed by the threat of removal of the President after the fiasco the House just put the country through. @CL -.5% TLT +.21% vix.x -1.6%.
It looks a bit negative to me, but not overly so this morning. I would expect some sort of gap fill this morning and then re-evaluate. I now have 3 swing positions on and am planning on adding to them into year-end. We are in the absolute best time for the markets, the House proceedings finished with a big dud. The judiciary has some thinking to do for the next two weeks. And if they are planning on bringing this to the House floor I am not sure they have the votes.
One of the leading Republicans in the House that is against Trump has come out and said there is nothing to impeach Trump on.
Add to that, leaks of the IG report are being released the first of which shows the FBI altered a key document in the application to obtain a FISA Warrant, that initiated the spying on Trump and his team. Remember, this is just a tidbit of what is coming. My guess is it is going to get much worse.
Dec 9th is the release date for the IG report, some 500 pages. I have little doubt it will initiate criminal prosecutions. How deep they go remains to be seen. Durham has now expanded his focus to the Pentagon. Make no mistake Durham is a serious-minded prosecutor. And Barr is a straight shooter. A bad combination for anyone that was involved in this.
But for now, the House is out of session for two weeks. So the Markets will be free to take on their seasonal tendencies, absent any surprises of course:)
I plan on taking advantage of that, hopefully.
Also, USMCA is dead in the water. Pelosi has said she sees no way it will pass by year-end. She may be leveraging that against moderate Dems who are against impeachment. I would not put it past her. But, we will see if that strategy works. I doubt it the Schiff hearings were so pathetic and the tide has definitely turned.
Let’s look at the odds this morning to see if there have been any significant shifts:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 44/56 +3 Pts
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 80/20 No Change ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convict Trump in 1st Term: 16/84 +2 Pts (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 80/20 No Change (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 42/58 No Change
Warren: 14/86 – 1 Pt
Biden: 14/76 No Change
Buttigieg 13/86 -1 Pt
Sanders 10/90 No Change
Bloomberg 6/94 + 1 Pt
Clinton 4/97 + 1 Pt
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31 44/56 +6 Pts I laid 38/62
I plan on selling This wager with a 10 to 20% gain after the IG report hits or the Durham report hits. That should send this higher.
A long shot wager might be betting against the House to impeach getting 4 to 1. It’s not good enough for me to wager on, but I think it has some equity the way things are going right now. With Hurd coming out against Impeachment this should wake up the moderate Dems, as Hurd is a Republican never Trumper.
We will see:)
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RickJ’s Handicapping Picks