Markets are gaping up this morning almost .4%. TLT about even, crude slightly red, vix.x slightly negative. A pretty neutral configuration. Although this week tends to have very bullish tendencies.
I have been adding to swing positions now with the idea of getting into this rally into the year-end. I will be looking at adding a new position this morning shortly after the open. All-day trades now are to the long side as the wind will be at our back.
Congress is out of session and that is always a good thing for the markets. The only news now is the leaks and propaganda coming from the media, but the markets have finally learned to ignore it for the most part. So it should be some smooth sledding at least until the House gets back into Session. Then we will have to wait and see what develops.
The House intelligence hearings were a disaster for the Dems. It has turned independents sharply against the process. Americans, for the most part, have a strong sense of fair play. Something that was clearly lacking in the House proceedings. Schiff as the face of the hearings could not have been a worse pick in my opinion.
I say this from the perspective of someone who has no particular ideology. I have opinions on issues, some matching up with liberals and some with conservatives. But overall I tend to be right in the middle when it comes to politics. And when I view it I view it as an outsider looking in.
For example, if you are a die-hard liberal, Schiff is most likely you savior:) If your a rabid Trump supporter Schiff is the Anti-Christ. Myself, I just view it as it is, from an analytical perspective and how it plays out to independents or middle America. From that perspective, Schiff could not have been a worse pick. It is almost like Pelosi has lost her sense of reason. Abandoning all pretense of fairness, thinking that independents are going to swing their way. I doubt it will happen.
As an aside, I watch an interview this weekend where Schiff fashioned himself after The Dude, in “The Big Lebowski”. I cannot see it myself:) But then again maybe I have a lack of imagination.
One other thing that is on my mind this morning is the encroachment of the Executive Branch by Congress. We can all see how dysfunctional Congress is, on both sides. Yet almost every day they want to restrict or encroach on the executive powers. They cannot even run their own branches without chaos, how are they going to run the executive branch also. The checks and balances that the U.S. has been at risk at the moment. They have been trampled upon because there are no procedures in place to check the abuse in Congress.
The reason is simple, the head of the executive branch gets a maximum of 8 years. Congress in many instances is a lifetime. So they pass laws that protect themselves from oversight. They oversee themselves:) Nice if you can get away with it. And they have. And we are seeing the results of no independent oversight in Congress. That needs to change fast.
Term limits, restrictions on campaign finance, restrictions on taking money from foreign governments, no dark money, and an active oversight would go a long way to changing things. The problem, it is congress that has to pass the laws that would change it. See the Catch-22. It is a big one.
In reality, it is not the executive branch that has too much power, it is Congress. As they have 0 oversight and unlimited terms.
I could go on and on this morning, but as an outsider looking in perspective it is not a pretty picture.
Let’s look at the political odds before the market opens:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 44/56 -3 Pts
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 79/21 -2 Pts ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 14/86 +1 Pt (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 80/20 -1 Pt (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 42/58 No Change
Warren: 14/86 No Change
Biden: 13/77 -1 Pt
Buttigieg 13/86 No Change
Sanders 9/91 -1 Pt
Bloomberg 11/89 + 3 Pts
Clinton 3/97 No Change
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31/20 34/65 -4 Pts I laid 38/62
I plan on selling This wager with a 10% to 20% gain after the IG report hits or the Durham report hits. That should send this higher.
The only change is Bloomberg is on the rise, which is to be expected since he just announced. He already sits right behind the frontrunners. I do not see the Dem base accepting him. But time will tell.
There will be a lot happening between now and Dec 9th when the IG report hits. The spin is hot and heavy. With leaks every day, most fake news. My suggesting is to ignore the spin and just wait for the report. There is just too much misinformation out there right now to get a good grasp of what is coming. My guess, however, is it is going to be very bad for the intelligence community. And with Durham and his team, along with a grand jury in place, I expect indictments. Durham is the guy you bring in when you are dead serious. We will see:)
Good Luck Today:)