Notice how quiet things are when Congress is not in session:) Well, they are back next week, and the chaos will continue. Next week Nadler goes into action. And Surprise, Schiff is not ending his investigation.
So what does this mean for the markets? So far the markets except for a few brief scares have not taken the House seriously. Not because they do not think there will be an impeachment, but because there is little to no chance of removal in the Senate.
There will still be some scares as the media exaggerates, and makes up stories. But overall, unless the Senate shifts on this issue, the market overall is solid. If the Senate shifts, except a downdraft. And if there is any uncertainty at all in the Senate of the result, expect a plunge in the markets.
So watch the odds, as they will reflect reality more than what the media is telling you. The media at this point is just propaganda. I know, it’s a tough pill to swallow. But it is what it is. I have learned long ago, that it is important to recognize reality. If you do not, you will be in store for some painful surprises.
This morning the markets are off about 1/5% an hour before the open. TLT slightly green, Crude slightly red, and Vix.x +5%.
A slightly negative pre-market. Today will be a low volume day with an early close. So, I doubt I will be making any trades this morning. On Friday I exited several swing trades with nice profits. I 1/2 of another trade. And I still have a full swing position on with a nice loss:(
On the International front Macron came out with an interesting statement over the weekend. He announced Russia and China essentially were not threats, but friends. It is interesting for a number of reasons. 1. Nato was established to protect the members from Russian aggression. 2. Nato is a high-cost proposition for the US with many members taking advantage of the US 3. I have yet to hear a liberal in the US say a word about Macron’s statement.
#3 is the most interesting as it highlights, to me anyway, the complete absurdity of the Russia, Russia, Russia hoax. A hoax started by the Democrats to remove a sitting President. And I have no doubt with a little help from establishment Republicans. I assure you when this madness subsides, the left will be back in pro-Russia mode. Which leads us to the new quid pro quo hoax. All manufactured by the DNC with the help of a rule change, and a fake whistleblower. All done because they want endless investigations. The special counsel finished at a cost of 40 million over two years. But, they had to manufacture something else to continue the hoax.
And they did. That is what you are seeing now, just another manufactured hoax. Even assuming the worst case, there is no quid pro quo. A sitting President is well within his authority to demand investigations into corrupt activities by US officials before releasing funds. It matters not whether the official is running for office. That is a red herring. Although interestingly it did not stop them when they began spying on the Trump campaign. Nor did it stop them when manufacturing the fake dossier.
What bothers me most about all of this is not what is being done. I expect no less from our politicians. But, the fact that there are no checks and balances to prevent this from happening is the problem. The US system is supposed to be built upon checks and balances. And so we learn, in reality, there are none. There is that word again “Reality”. It is an interesting concept, best to grasp it as it is as important as ever to now have a firm grasp on it. No checks and balances. A scary thought.
Ok enough for this morning, let’s take a look at the political odds and see what has changed since my last post early in the week:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 45/55 +1 Pt
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 79/21 No Change ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 13/87 -1 Pt (This is the one to watch)
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 80/20 -1 Pt (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 44/56 + 2 Pts
Warren: 10/90 -4 Pts
Biden: 14/86 +1 Pt
Buttigieg 13/86 No Change
Sanders 11/89 -1 Pt
Bloomberg 8/92 – 2 Pts
Clinton 4/96 +1 Pt
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31/20 30/70 -4 Pts I laid 38/62
The odds have increased quite a bit on Indictment. At getting 7 to 2 this is a substantial overlay. The media is driving this line with its narrative.
I plan on selling This wager with a 10% to 20% gain after the IG report hits or the Durham report hits. That should send this higher. Although, this may well end up being a longer-term wager than I thought.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
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Have a great day trading:)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks