We are heading into week 15 of the Westgate NFL Supercontest and I sit at 39-31 or 55.7% with another 3-2 week last week. I started out this week with a loss on the Jets as one of my picks. The game could have gone either way at the end.
In College football, we are waiting for the bowl games as we sit at 31-22-1 or a solid 58.49%. The ROI for the College football season is now 12.8%.
In the NFL for plays last week we went 2-1 winning with the Bears +3 and Jets Under, and losing with Atlanta Under. That brings us to 17-16 for plays in the NFL this season.
In the All spread contest I am in where I pick every game against the spread I sit at 116-93 or 55.5% So if you bet every game I picked against the spread this year you would be +13.7 Units. That is a 6.5% ROI:) I send these picks out to all subscribers.
The lesson of the week:
Variance is the single most variable that gets most gamblers. You can be the best in the world at handicapping or poker but if you do not understand and respect variance it will not matter one bit. An above-average player that has a deep respect for variance in the long haul will end up much better than the best player that has no respect for variance. Once you understand this, you are on your way to becoming a winning sports bettor. But until you do, you are toast!
My Westgate NFL Contest picks this:
Jets +15 (L)
Last week the Westgate top 5 went 4-1 bringing their record to 36-32-2. For them, this is a stellar season:)
The Westgate top 5 this week is:
I am fading one of the top 5 and not with any of the top 5 this week.
The Westgate bottom 5:
I am on 2 of the bottom 5 and have lost with the Jets.
The Updated political odds this week:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 88/12 +17 Pts (regardless of the rumors that they may not have the votes with 31 Dems running in Trump states, it looks like it is a real long shot that House does not impeach. Most likely will happen next week.)
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 92/8 +3 Pts ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 9/91 -4 Pts (This is the one to watch) Another new lost. There is virtually no chance of a conviction in the Senate.
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 85/15 +1 Pt (Another one to watch) Staying at the highs
Which Party wins the Presidency in 2020: It is virtually a tossup at this point with the Dems having a very slight edge in the odds. This has been narrowing for some time now.
Control of the House after 2020: Dems 70/30 ( I think there is value taking the odds on this one, you are getting over 2 to 1 and the negative effect of impeachment, in my opinion, has not been built into the line yet.
Control of the Senate after 2020: 68/34 Republicans. I would lay the 2 to 1 here but the overlay is not as great as I see it as in taking the odds on the House race.
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 46/54 +3 Pts ( A new High)
Warren: 8/82 No Change
Biden: 19/81 +3 Pts
Buttigieg 9/81 – 3 Pts
Sanders 16/84 + 2 Pts
Bloomberg 5/95 -1 Pt
Clinton 6/94 – 2 Pts
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31/20 42/58 +4 Pts I laid 38/62 ( I got the IG report bounce and reality is setting in that the idea that Giuliani is going to be indicted is a fairytale:) I suspect the odds will be reversed in the next month or so. I plan on taking a 20% gain once I can get it. It has been slower coming than I anticipated, primarily because the media have been spinning this for some time now. If I have to I will just sit on it and take my 120% profit in 2020.
I have not reviewed the new odds for some time now as not much has changed. But with primaries coming up I suspect there will be some lucrative opportunities, especially fading every Democrat that is running in a Trump area. I think you could fade every one, and win over 60% of the wagers getting +odds.
I have not looked at the primary lineup on the Republican side. I would be inclined to take every MAGA candidate that is running against an establishment Republican that has shown any negative statements against Trump. Again I expect these to all be +odds.
All one has to do is look at the UK results and see the mood of the electorate. Now there are some additional considerations in the U.S. which I will get into in a later post.
It’s still not too late to join us as we are in the end stages of the NFL and College football with college hoops just beginning. We have the bowl games, NFL playoffs also coming up.
In addition, the NBA first-half wagers have been on fire, something like a 6-0 run:) All subscriptions have a 3-day free trial. Just go to the PayPal drop-down menu on this site and choose the monthly option. Hope to see you join us!
Good Luck Today:)