The Markets are not disappointing anyone right now, New highs daily. This is why they call this the best time of the year for the markets. Not even the chaos in DC can derail this market. Add the first phase of the China trade deal and USMCA to the picture and it creates an even bullish picture heading into 2020.
Record unemployment across every class of people in the U.S., Wages on the increase, Manufacturing returning, No recession in sight, everything is rosy in the U.S. right now on the economic front. But humans the creatures that they are, are unhappy. What would the turmoil be like if the U.S. was in a recession? Or unemployment was hitting 20%?
It’s a sad situation when politics is independent of the well being of the U.S. The better things are the more dysfunctional the U.S. political system becomes. So one has to ask why.
There are several reasons. Politics has become a 0 sum game. The people are mere pawns for the people playing the game. It is a power game, and anything goes. This was not the way it was supposed to end up. But here we are. The next reason is corruption on levels you cannot even begin to comprehend. The entrenched political class on both sides has been putting a screwing to the people for so long that they cannot afford a President like Trump that threatens their gravy train.
But, the times they are a changin. In Virginia, militias are being formed to confront the state government in their gun grab. This is no small thing. They are ready to fight. And my prediction is you will start seeing this spring up all over the country. On the other hand, Antifa will be in full swing, their handlers will set them and others loose to cause havoc. Soros and his groups are already planning impeachment demonstrations across the U.S.
They failed in the UK, and now the U.S. is their last chance to take down a free society. They fail here and they are finished. The problem is they may well not fail. Many Republicans think they can walk a fine line of getting rid of Trump and keeping the enemies of the U.S. at bay. They are making a big mistake on this one. People like the Never Trumpers, and lately Fiorina has made a big miscalculation. As if Trump goes down, the Republic goes down. There will be no place for any of them. Unless they are fine with a fascist state.
The irony of all of this is that the Horowitz report finally comes out, and it essentially shows there was no predicate for any of this to have started. The entire Special Counsel was premised upon a lie. The FISA warrants were obtained on a lie. There is direct proof the FBI falsified documents to obtain the FISA warrants. So Trump has been vindicated. Yet, the impeachment drum beats louder. All reason has evaporated at this point, it mob rule, no different then a lynch mob.
Part of the problem is there are no indictments. People are getting passes when the proper strategy is to hold everyone accountable. How many have lied under oath only to get a pass by the DOJ? This is exacerbating the problem. Sure Durham is in the wings. But by late spring there may be no country to recover from when he ultimately springs into action. (if he ever does).
It would be an entirely different picture if they indicted everyone that lied in front of Congress. Indicted every FBI agent that falsified records. But, so far, everyone gets a pass. Except for Flynn, Assange, and Stone of course.
So how does all of this relate to the stock market:) The message is, enjoy it while you can. As I still think the risks are great for a plunge as a result of the political dysfunction in the U.S. If the Senate waffles, you will see a drop you have never seen before in the markets. If the Dems take control of all three branches it is time to sell everything, including your real estate, and consider getting out of dodge. It will be that bad.
This is not the 60s. I live through the 60s. This is the end game between good and evil and it is not clear at this point which side is going to win. The useful idiots that make up much of the population have no idea what is in store down the road. Americans will finally feel the pain that other people from other countries have had to endure. America has been sheltered from this. But I few for not much longer.
That is my grim picture of things as we approach a new year. Am I some delusional type? Perhaps. I always factor into my thinking that I may have gone off the deep end. After all, we are all susceptible to that from time to time. But I think not. Time will tell:)
Lets take a look at the political odds as we head into the House vote on impeachment:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 92/8 +4 Pts (regardless of the rumors that they may not have the votes with 31 Dems running in Trump states, it looks like it is a real long shot that House does not impeach. Most likely will happen next week.)
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 95/5 +3 Pts ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 11/89 +2 Pts (This is the one to watch) Another new lost. There is virtually no chance of a conviction in the Senate.
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 86/14 +1 Pt (Another one to watch) Staying at the highs
Which Party wins the Presidency in 2020: It is virtually a tossup at this point with the Dems having a very slight edge in the odds. This has been narrowing for some time now.
Control of the House after 2020: Dems 70/30 ( I think there is value taking the odds on this one, you are getting over 2 to 1 and the negative effect of impeachment, in my opinion, has not been built into the line yet.
Control of the Senate after 2020: 68/34 Republicans. I would lay the 2 to 1 here but the overlay is not as great as I see it as in taking the odds on the House race.
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 47/53 +1 Pts ( A new High)
Warren: 8/82 No Change
Biden: 18/82 -1 Pts
Buttigieg 9/81 No Change
Sanders 15/85 -1 Pts
Bloomberg 5/95 No Change
Clinton 6/94 No change
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31/20 43/57 +1 Pts I laid 38/62 ( I have a very small gain right now after being underwater, I am sticking with the wager)
A good wager right now would be to take the 11/89 on conviction. Not because I expect a conviction, but because I expect some drama. The punters online will start betting this up where you should be able to lay it off at 100% profit pretty easily in the next few weeks. This looks like the best wager out there right now.
It’s still not too late to join us as we are in the end stages of the NFL and College football with college hoops just beginning. We have the bowl games, NFL playoffs also coming up.
In addition, the NBA first-half wagers have been on fire, something like a 6-0 run:) All subscriptions have a 3-day free trial. Just go to the PayPal drop-down menu on this site and choose the monthly option. Hope to see you join us!
Good Luck Today:)