Markets slightly off Thursday morning, A great put sale strategy, updated political odds. My thoughts for a Thursday morning

The markets this morning are gaping down a bit after a strong move to the downside on Wednesday.  The ES is -.8% and 7pts off its overnight lows. QQQ is about unchanged. TLT +.72% Vix.x +5.5% @CL -2.1%

This is a week premarket open, and I would be careful here of a run to the downside even after yesterday’s big move. The only mitigating factor right now is the Nasdaq being unchanged. That is no small factor, so I would keep in eye on it to see if it rolls over.

I have a nice portfolio of income bearing instruments, with very few non-income related trades. Also, as most of you know today is my short put sale day. This is a technique I have developed with the time I have on hand with sports in limbo. And it has been a real winner:)

The strategy I am using is selling weekly puts on Thursday that expire on Friday. So far I have had approximately 135 trades, with a 90% win rate and a profit factor of 4.5.  The drawdown has been minimal.

To give you an idea  I have 35 options on my watchlist this morning. So it will be a busy first hour of trading for me. My filtering is very strict before I make a trade. So I expect out of the 35 no more then 5 to 10 short put sales. Last week I had 18 options in my bucket and ended up with 4 trades going 4-0.

Like I said these have been incredible.

I give these out for free to my sports subscribers through slack. I am doing this until the MLB season starts, which right now looks like the 3rd week in July. At that time I will be reactivating all subscriber accounts that have been put on pause.

Many are following these trades along with my swing trades. It has turned out very profitable for everyone.

My twitter account @rickjsportplays was hacked. It took me 24 days to get it back from twitter. I learned a few things from the experience. 1. Have a 2 factor security backup system and 2. do not hire hackers to get your account back (99% are frauds). I will save that story for another day.

Its been a while since I have talked about political odds so lets get started:


Dem Nominee:

Biden 89/11  No Change
Sanders  1/99  -1 PT
Clinton 6/94    No Change
Cuomo 1/99  -1 Pt

Its looking more and more like its going to be Biden.  Since I last posted the only person that is above 1 Pt is Clinton. I still have a lingering feeling that the Dems will dump Biden. But its a real longshot right now.

Dem VP Nomination:

Harris 48/52   +8 Pts
Klobuchar 1/99 -14 Pts
Abrams 3/97  -4 Pts
Warren 9/91  +2 Pts
Masto 1/99   No Change
Whitmer: 1/99 -4 Pts

Rice 17/83        +17 Pts

Demings  13/87   +13Pts


Still looking like Harris, but Harris does not get him any votes. California is already in his pocket.  Rice has jumped into 2nd place. No doubt Obama would love to have Rice in place ready to step in as President. I have no idea who they will pick. With the Dems you just have to figure out their strategy. If they think they have this one in the bag, then it will most likely be Rice.

Presidential winner:

Trump 42/58 -7 Pts I have a small amount of equity on my wager getting 45/55
Biden 59/41  +4 Pts

I Still like Trump at even money or better. The media has again portrayed a race where trump is understated.  The base has not left him but gotten stronger. It is hard to evaluate if you are watching cable news. Even tougher if you watch their polls. In reality, you have to figure it out on your own as there is no dataset that is reliable right now.

There is one thing you can count on, the polls will be slanted toward Biden by at least 10 pts.  As I noted Trump at even money seems reasonable and now you can get almost 6/4. My take is the outcome will hinge on whether they get voter fraud under control. 2020 will be massive attempts at voter fraud. The establishment will be taking out all stops to get Trump out of office.

The two primary reasons: 1. Very high up people are going to be spending time in prison if he wins  2. He is costing the establishment  a lot of money with his America first policy. All the special interest money is drying up as they cannot produce. Trump is looking out for Americans, not special interests. So the establishment on both sides wants him gone.

I would like to find a wager as to how many senate Republicans vote for Biden:)  Since there is no way of finding out there will not be a line. But my guess is at least 10 will be voting for Biden.

Control of the Presidency: Dems 57/43 +4 Pts

Again I believe the value is on the Republicans

Control of the House:

85/15 Democrats: +4 Pts

Getting 4 to 1 is turning out to be the best overlay on the card right now. Someone must know something that I do not know, but, I do not see how much has changed for the House members that are in Trump districts. If anything they have gotten worse. Another good wager is to bet against each of the “dirty 30”

Control of the Senate:

58/42 in favor of the Democrats +8 Pts

I think the Republicans are a good wager here, getting almost 6/4. They have not done themselves any favors, to say the least. But I cannot fathom the electorate going with the Dems with their policy agenda.

Odds of a recession during Trump’s first term: 97/3+1 Pts my wager taking 4 to 1 Right now it is looking grim for my wager. Although the technical recession will be very short-lived.

The best wager of the year will be fading the dirty 30 in the House. They are all incumbents, and all will most likely be +odds. So you only need to go 50% to make money. I cannot imagine not hitting 60%+ on these.

That’s it for today,

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks



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