One more game tonight in the NFL.
Betting is 53% on Arizona with the line moving from -5.5-109 to -9.5-104. This move is not related to Brady being out but a key injury that puts Gronkowski on the bench.
Saying that however the 4 point move to me seems a bit overdone and i was going to bet NE but the betting numbers have changed dramatically from 40% on NE to know 47%. That is going to prevent me from wagering on the game. However, If you not already down on Arizona its a bit late to be thinking about betting them. I am passing on the game.
If Detroit can hang on and cover +3.5 for me I will be 3-1 going into tomorrow night’s San Fran game in the Hilton NFL Contest.The missed extra point might just have cinched it for me:)
Good Luck which ever side you choose!
An interesting game today between:
Betting is 74% on Green bay but the line has moved from -4-110 to -3.5 +104 and is +3 in some spots. Coming off the 3.5 in some books is a pretty big move. This is the game everyone is betting on. Green Bay I am sure is the lock of the day around the vegas poker tables!
While +3 is too late to jump on board Jacksonville. If your still thinking about Green Bay I would give the game a rest:)
I also entered an NFL contest where you pick all games against the spread. Here are my first weeks picks:
New Eng +6.5
San Fran +2.5
Saturday turned out to be a very busy day for me getting the rust off my mind to handicap a full slate of College football games. And I was rewarded with a 4-1 day.
Winners in College football were Cinci -3, Unlv +25.5, Tenn -11.5, and Troy +34.5. Our loser was Old Dominion +21 and they had it covered until they gave up a TD with 1 min left in the game!
Troy was also an interesting game as if things tilted a bit at the end of the game they had a chance at winning the game as a 34.5 Dog. It’s obsessive handicapping that leads you to games like Troy +34.5.
So after the first two weeks of college football we are sitting at 6-2. I will take it:)
In MLB we had a 1 unit play on Tampa Bay +134 and they lost.
We also had 4 Big Move games:
Tampa +131 Colorado -134 Angels +165 Houston +105
With the closing line:
Tampa +127 Colorado -119 Angels +138 Houston +109
So 3 our way and 1 against. There were 2 big moves and we split on predicting those.
Now on to the NFL!!!
My Westgate NFL SuperContest pick in the order I liked them at the time:
Denver +3 (W 21-20) San Fran +2.5 Bears +6 Detroit +3.5 Jacksonville +5.5
The first 4 were easy picks for me. Pick 5, however, was not as clear. I could have picked New England or Washington but finally settled on Jacksonville. That’s a game where if you told someone it was one of your top 5 picks they would either get mad or laugh about it!
Jacksonville is a pick that 5 years ago you could sit back, relax, and count the money after they won by two touchdowns. Not as easy anymore with these types of picks. They are still good but the “sharps” have made it much more difficult finding EV on these types of plays. 5 years ago the line might have been +7.5 or higher.
The top 5 picks in the Hilton Contest for week 1:
I am on the opposite side of Houston but with them on Detroit. (that is not a good sign)
Fading the top 5 historically has been an excellent strategy. However last year you would have hit a brick wall and had a sizable loss. However, I still think there is value in at least giving some weight that these teams are in the top 5. By weight, I mean to the opposite side.
It might also be instructive to take a look at the bottom 5:
This is typically where you want to be. And as it turns out I am on 2 of the games with Denver already in as a winner.
% numbers for today in the NFL:
Green Bay 79
Houston 69 (reverse line move on Dog)
Indy 62 ( Reverse Line Move on Dog)
New Orleans 52
That is my NFL Breakdown for this morning. Note that the Reverse line move on Detroit is 2 pts which typically is too much to attempt to fade. In addition, the Detroit game is now 3 which means you do not win a 3 pt game. So the value if any is now out of the game at +3
Today so far I have sent out a 1 unit play and 4 Big Move Games
Remember sports bettors tend to bet way more than they should the first few weeks of the season. Do not fall into that trap. Use the bet sizing methods I discuss in the must read portion of this site. If you follow this you have the best probability of beating the books while reducing variance substantially.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks