Two more games this evening on tap in the NCAA Tournament:
# 11 Gonzaga
# 10 Syracuse
Betting is 55% on Gonzaga with the line moving from -4.5 to -4. I guess a mini reverse line move! Variables favor Syracuse. Models are neutral. Public betting if you stretch it favors syracuse. For me 45% on Syracuse does not do it. I am passing on the game
# 5 Indiana
#1 North Carolina
Betting is 60% on North Carolina with the line moving from -6 to -5-111. That is a bit more of a reverse line move however Cris has -4.5 to -5. Its always a good idea to take a look at multiple books when deciding if there is a reverse line move on the game. Not only do you get mistakes in the opening line from time to time but the action can be a little different from book to book. Variables slightly favor Indiana but very slightly. Models are neutral. Again I am passing on the game.
Meanwhile, it looks like the punters are going to make it 5-0 on favorites as Virginia leads by 12 with 8 1/2 min left. Not for sure yet but on its way. Thats a nice run this weekend for the public. It is not supposed to be this easy:)
Good Luck Tonight
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
The first two games of the second day of the sweet 16 are approaching and the question is will today be as easy for the punters as yesterday where every favorite came in easily. I can imagine the books are keeping their fingers crossed for a nonrepeat of yesterday! Although no 68% games tonight. The biggest number is 60%.
#4 Iowa State
Betting is 60% on Virginia with the line moving from -5.5 to -6. Variables slightly favor Iowa State. Models are neutral. Public betting provides no clues to me. The way the numbers in the game are right now it is as close to a tossup for EV as I can see. No clues, slight edge on variables means a pass for me.
# 7 Wisconsin
#6 Notre Dame
Betting is 59% on Notre Dame with the line staying pretty steady from -1.5-106 to -1.5-110. You can find a 2 at some books. Variables favor Wisconsin, models neutral and public betting again provides little in the way of clues. With any indication from the public betting, this game is an easy pass.
After a day like Thursday, I have no qualms about a day where nothing looks very good. And if you know me very well as some of you do that have been following me the last 13 years I am not inclined to stretch any games to come up with plays. Not my style:)
So in the first two NCAA Tournament games, tonight both are an easy pass for me.
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
Thursday was a day the punters got the money. Historically the sweet 16 provides EV opportunities on the dog in most circumstances. The first day of the Sweet 16 not only showed the favorites covering but covering easily. All Favorites were fairly large public favorites with Oklahoma and Kansas at 68% , Oregon 59% and then bringing up the rear Villanova 54%. Two of these favorites sported reverse line moves that made the dog even more attractive.
But in the end it did not matter as the four favorites romped with the bookmakers getting crushed. An easy day for the punter but I doubt that will last long! It never does.
But in the meantime I could not escape the carnage going 1-4 on my NCAA Tournament plays on Thursday. 1-1 on the totals and 0-3 on the sides. I passed on Duke but it didnt matter as Oregon covered easily.
Will it be that easy today? I doubt it but its gambling so one never does know for certain. Thats what makes all this interesting. If it were easy everyone would be doing it. But beating the books is something very few can do in the long run. Looking at yesterday in retrospect there isnt a wager I would change. They were all solid positive EV plays.
Enought whining by me:) I am not one to whine. So I am stopping now!
Today another 4 games on tap in the Sweet 16 with all games starting tonight. With the markets closed today and no early games I have to figure out what to do with my day. A rare day that I have very little going on in the morning and afternoon.
Almost forgot 1/2 unit plays in the NHL went 1-2. Winning with Toronto +160 in OT and losing with Montreal +180 and Calgary +155.
After a losing day I pretty much do exactly what I have been doing before. Typically I do not change a thing. I might look over the plays with a little extra scrutiny but that is about it. That is what is good about the 2% rule and bankroll sizing I talk about in the must read portion of the site. It makes one of the most difficult things about sports betting easy. No guess work. All you have to do is figure out the appropriate size of your starting bankroll with the caveat that is should be an amount that would cause you no conern at all if you lose it all.
Sports betting is supposed to be fun and stress free. Its not supposed to matter if you win or lose a game. As I have said before I view wins and loses as an academic intellectual exercise rather then looking at everything as winners and losers. But then again I have been througholy conditioned. It took a long time to get to that place:)
Looking over tonights games the card is not even close to providing the opportunities I saw yesterday. Should be at least one play however and in the NBA there are a few Favorites that look pretty good tonight. They are 4-1 since I started mentioning them.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks