We lost our regular play on K.C. Down by 1 run they got a lead off double the bottom of the 9th. Then a Strikeout…and an out stealing third took them out of contention:)

Our tracking play on Arizona lost but our tracking play on Washington under 7 won.

We get a few days break from baseball. At the all star break we are 46-52 and plus 4.44 units. Thats about a 4.5% return on 98 plays. Last season we had 162 plays and plus 18.60 units. So we are behind last year.

I think for the 2nd half of the season we should expect more of the same. We had two big swings the first half….18 units to the upside and 20 to the downside.

Most bettors are more then likely finished with baseball at this point but myself I am looking forward to the 2nd half having finished to the plus side the first half.

A Comment:

Rick,

You have talked about players that quit the poker game after being ahead a small amount. I understand what you are saying…but isnt it a good idea to lock up profits in a poker game rather then taking the risk of losing everything back?

My Response:

My view is that if your a positive ev player the more hours you put in the more money you will be ahead at the end of the year. Its really as simple as that:)

Sure there will be times when you are 2000 winner and end up 1000 loser for the day. But a day is really an artificial time frame. Poker is a lifetime event and the there is no way to avoid the swings that take place…..accept them…. and view the games as just one continuous game.

The only 2 reason I might quit early are if for whatever reason I am not playing well….or the nature of the game changes to a bad game.

Players that take quick wins and leave are really a nuisance to the game. They are irrelevant when there are plenty of players to take their place..ie during tournament time….but are very detrimental to the game when your trying to get it started to bring in other players.

Right now at the Bellagio in the Omaha 8 game there are plenty of players….but during the off season the game struggles and it really is annoying to help start the game short handed..and then after 40 min have 2 players quit because they are a few hundred ahead and break the game. But that is the way about 75% of the locals play now. So more then likely its going to be tough sledding after the tournament crowd leaves.

Also as an example…..If you get 8 computer programs playing poker against each other …. they play millions of hands and the best programmed computer wins. Do you think any of the programmers built into their routine that their computer quits when they are a few big bets ahead:)

Its almost comical to watch players that get a few big bets ahead start looking at their watch or counting their chips. You can read their minds….(how can I get out of here with this win!)

The one advantage I can think of to the hit and run strategy is that the players that do that almost without exception are negative ev players. So inadvertently they have found a strategy that will put them at the table less hours and thus give them a smaller loss for the year.

The best players put in their hours and take the swings and count their money at the end of the year.

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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