Sunday NFL Play
Looking at the next set of games both Tenn and Ariz are very close to plays. For awhile +12 was widely available and I was going to make it a play. But now that number is very hard to find. As to Arizona the public number for the game has moved to 40%. If it breaks that number and goes to 39% I am going to bet the game.
So for now
Sunday MLB Tracking Setups: ( I do not bet these)
Sunday NFL Tracking Setup ( I do not bet these)
Sunday NFL Play
St Louis +9
Both Baltimore 2.5 and Cleveland +2 are interesting. The public is 34% on Balt and 33% on Cleveland and both have reverse line moves. In addition Baltimore has a few other things I look at going for it. If the games had opened at +4 and were now +3.5 they would be easy plays for me. If 3.5 to 3 most likely I would still play them. But on both the line opened at +3 so am going to pass on the games.
Things are looking up for a play or maybe two in the afternoon games.
Public numbers for today:
Green Bay 64%
San fran 57%
New Orl 68%
Hilton Contest Top 5 picks
The top 5 so far this year is 6-18-1
The above should be consider in a contrarian manner. If your handicapping leads you to the top public picks or the top 5 in the hilton contest you most likely need to make some adjustments. However if they lead you to the opposite side of the public and hilton contest your on the right track.
A caveat…Last season there was a week where the public numbers were loaded up on about 10 games one weekend…..and they all covered easily!
Plays will be posted in about an hour if there are any. Nothing stands out this weekend in the NFL.
Saturday was a busy day. We won our 1 unit play on ST. Louis +128. We went 2-2 on our1 unit Ncaa Football plays. Purdue and Utah St never had a chance. New Mexico looked like a blowout at the half but they came back and covered and then there was Penn St. I watched the entire game from the venetian while throwing away hand after hand in Omaha 8:) I Still do not know how we won that one!
Also our tracking setup on UCLA -25 won. I do not know if your looking at those but those have been the bright spot for college football this season as they are so far
Nothing showed up in the NHL.
Today taking a look at NHL and MLB there is nothing there I can see.
That leads me to this comment From Yesterday:
“Hi Rick, Question for you. It seems like every underdog so far this MLB postseason has warranted a play. For a normally selective handicapper, you don’t seem to be finding many constraints when it comes to all of these plays. Can you please explain why we are seeing so many – if not every – MLB postseason dog as a play? Thanks,
Your observation is correct that there have been many more plays in post season play. And its correct that they have all been on the dog. But it has not been every game. In post season play historically the short dogs are thw side to be on. Home short dogs historically have been the nuts….and road short dogs have been positive ev. Equally strong have been favorites over -190.
So….I have taken this subset and handicap off of those. The only difference is that if everything I look at is neutral on the game I bet it as opposed to regular season where I need what I look at to point to the game.
One other Comment regarding Arizona Today:
“So are you not using public numbers as a filter anymore? Arizona in your hilton picks doesn’t seem to fit your system.”
Yes as far as public numbers go you are correct. But picking 5 games a week in the NFL you have to make some compromises and in addition to that make some projections where you think the numbers will be sunday..both as to line and public. Looking at arizona 44% are betting on Arizona so that takes it away from a possible bet for me. But I have to say that everything else I look at points strongly towards arizona.
In addition nothing stood out and said Bet On me. The best to me early in the week was Tennessee +13. Everything pointed to that game. But now the number is down to 11 and although its still a reverse line move and the public numbers support the game usually line moves of this magnitude are not a winning proposition to fade. On these reverse line moves what you like to see in the NFL is 1/2 to a point move. When it gets over that you have to reconsider. Thats why I most likely will not be betting Tenn today.
I will post public numbers and Hilton top 5 shortly. Plays if there are any will be posted about 30 min before game time.