Two game in College football tonight
New Mexico 52%
Louisville on Pinnacle -27.5 to -27.5-115, On Cris -27 to -27.5 with Bovada at 28. My models show the game to be fairly valued. My variables point to both sides slightly favoring Louisville. I do not see any edge for me on this game even with the public only 17% on the dog. I am going to pass on the game.
New Mexico on Pinnacle -3 to -3-104 and on Cris -1.5 to -3-105. Bovada -3.
Variables slightly favor Air Force and models slightly favor New mexico. The public
is split evenly on the game….a coin flip and an easy pass.
“I am looking for a site to use for openers that is one of the first and has sharp play. I follow late moves at pinnacle so I was thinking of that or 5dimes. I know you follow many, but I am looking for just one. Thanks”
For what you are doing I would use Cris. Pinnacle puts out opening lines often by adjusting the money line on the spread. For instance on a -2.5 opener on Cris they might have -1-129.
Its more difficult to figure out sharp plays off of pinnacles openers. In addition Cris is one of the first if not the first to put out lines. I have been using them more and more over Pinnacle.
A good day yesterday. Our 1 unit play in the NFL won with Minn +1 winning the game by 7. Also won my first pick this week in the Hilton contest. Also our Tracking Setup on Stanford +10.5 was an easy winner with Stanford winning the game easily.
Today too early for nba and nhl.
Two college football games tonight….and College baskets starts today.
This last week I have received quite a bit of email asking me to put out plays that were so good for two years but I abandoned last year as I could not figure out why they were a positive ev.
So….I have gone over my spreadsheets for the last three years and have come up with a method that also incorporates my method from 2 and 3 years ago. Its much more conservative then the previous method. So less plays. And I am only going to bet 1/2 unit on these. If they have a strong showing this year..I will up them to one unit next season.
Also I will incorporate last seasons 1 unit plays….but as last season there will not be many.
Remember for me there are 3 seasons in College baskets. The first starts today and last until about 1 week before conference play. The 2nd is conference play. The third is tournament time.
So lets get started
Friday NCAA BB Play
587 Citadel +10
If anything else changes I will update later.
Two college football games tonight. I will comment on them before I leave for the venetian today.
Good Luck Today