Rickj's Handicapping Picks

10:00 Update

Two game in College football tonight

Public numbers:
Louisville 83%
New Mexico 52%

Louisville on Pinnacle -27.5 to -27.5-115, On Cris -27 to -27.5 with Bovada at 28. My models show the game to be fairly valued. My variables point to both sides slightly favoring Louisville. I do not see any edge for me on this game even with the public only 17% on the dog. I am going to pass on the game.

New Mexico on Pinnacle -3 to -3-104 and on Cris -1.5 to -3-105. Bovada -3.
Variables slightly favor Air Force and models slightly favor New mexico. The public
is split evenly on the game….a coin flip and an easy pass.

A comment:

“I am looking for a site to use for openers that is one of the first and has sharp play. I follow late moves at pinnacle so I was thinking of that or 5dimes. I know you follow many, but I am looking for just one. Thanks”

For what you are doing I would use Cris. Pinnacle puts out opening lines often by adjusting the money line on the spread. For instance on a -2.5 opener on Cris they might have -1-129.

Its more difficult to figure out sharp plays off of pinnacles openers. In addition Cris is one of the first if not the first to put out lines. I have been using them more and more over Pinnacle.

A good day yesterday. Our 1 unit play in the NFL won with Minn +1 winning the game by 7. Also won my first pick this week in the Hilton contest. Also our Tracking Setup on Stanford +10.5 was an easy winner with Stanford winning the game easily.

Today too early for nba and nhl.

Two college football games tonight….and College baskets starts today.

This last week I have received quite a bit of email asking me to put out plays that were so good for two years but I abandoned last year as I could not figure out why they were a positive ev.

So….I have gone over my spreadsheets for the last three years and have come up with a method that also incorporates my method from 2 and 3 years ago. Its much more conservative then the previous method. So less plays. And I am only going to bet 1/2 unit on these. If they have a strong showing this year..I will up them to one unit next season.

Also I will incorporate last seasons 1 unit plays….but as last season there will not be many.

Remember for me there are 3 seasons in College baskets. The first starts today and last until about 1 week before conference play. The 2nd is conference play. The third is tournament time.

So lets get started

Friday NCAA BB Play
1/2 Unit
587 Citadel +10

If anything else changes I will update later.

Two college football games tonight. I will comment on them before I leave for the venetian today.

Good Luck Today

Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Contact Us

We're not around right now. But you can send us an email and we'll get back to you, asap.

Not readable? Change text. captcha txt
Rickj's Handicapping Picks