NFL Week 12, Circa NFL Picks for today , Week 10 and season to date recap, Comments on trading methods all posted
The NFL Contest picks are looking pretty good as I enter Week 12.
In the Circa contest I sit at 33-24 which includes to Thursday picks , Det+3 and Jacksonville +7. That is a 57.89% win rate. To cash I am going to need to get upwards of 65% 🙂
In the My bookie contest I sit a bit better at 35-21-1 which includes the same Thursday picks as above. That is a 62.5% win rate. To cash I will need over 65% again as the field in the My Bookie contests is substantially higher.
In the all spread contest where I pick every game against the spread, after a slow start I now sit at 91-77 or 54.16% against the spread. I was hovering just below the 50% level for awhile, but have had a monster several weeks. I have already cashed in one of the weekly contests, so my entry is 2/3rd paid for. I am in 12th place in the contest with #1 at 102-66-0. So 11 wins behind him. I am 1 out of being in the top 10 right now in the contest.
I send out all of my All Spread contest picks to subscribers!!!
My picks this week in the Circa are :
Det +3 (W)
Raiders +7 (W)
It starts to get exciting if I can get a 4-1 or 5-0 day under my belt this week:)
In the Westgate NFL contest the Top 5 YTD record is 27-27-1 going 2-3 last week. This number has had
a wider fluctuation then in the past but as a general rule you want to be fading these top 5 picks rather then
going with them.
This week the top 5 in the westgate are:
I am not fading any of the top 5 nor am I on any of the top 5. Usually I like to end up fading as many as I can:)
For 1 unit plays I send out to subscribers, this season I sit at 16-15 for Sides and 1-0 for Totals, or combines 17-15.
I had a mid season swoon, but it looks like I am back on track with these plays.
About a year ago I added to this service most of my trading that I make during the day. I included this as a 0 charge
addon to give extra value to the service for those that trade the markets.
My trades consist of a wide variety of methods, but most are in the following group:
1 Mean Reversion trades
2. Swing Trades medium term
3. Day trades (Not very many)
4. Income trades
5. Short put income producing trades
By far the two most profitable have been since I started posting these are the income trades and the 2 day short put trades.
The 2 could not be any more different. The 2 day short put trades I place on Thursday morning with a friday expiration. They have several characteristics: 1. Carefully screened as to the underlying health of the stock I am trading the option on 2. A strike price that is 20 to 30 % of the stock price at the time I make the trade 3. No earnings for the next 7 days 4. Enough liquidity that there is no problem getting in and out of the trade.
In managing these, there are two rules of thought. The first is rolling it over if the price of the stock looks like it is going to close through the strike price or taking delivery of the stock and selling calls against it for income. There is a trade off to these that you should be aware of. 1. You give up a lot of EV by rolling and at times your going to take a huge loss. 2. But the capital requirements are substantially less then the take delivery method.
My view is if you screened correctly the taking delivery and selling calls for income is the better approach. However, saying that the capital requirements can be rather large. You need to be knowledgeable in this area to understand what I am saying. I am here to a
answer any questions regarding this. But my bottom line is if you have the capital taking delivery has the best return.
The Income trades revolve around Closed end funds trading at a discount to Net Asset Value. The things they have in common is that most produce a rate of return in the 8% per year area, and most have a substantial discount to NAV when placed. In addition as in the short put sales, I have a screen I use that gives me the best of the bunch to trade.
It has been as solid a performer as you can get with most of the trades producing not only 8% a year but also a nice capital gain when exiting the trade.
Since I started posting my 2 day short put trades I have had 367 trades, with a 346 -21 win rate or almost 95%. The profit factor on these is 3.86%. This is a very solid system, and as we get more trades under our belt the more confirmation there is as to the validity of the method. Drawdowns have been minimal and when they happen it takes a very short time to make it back.
The income trades have produced 50 trades with 45 winners and 5 losers. That is a 90% win rate and a profit factor of 16.11 . Not near as many trades as the 2 day short put trades but very promising numbers.
To get an example of what good screening will do for you I had 4 short put sales last week. On Friday we had an 800 pt down move in the Dow, and yet none of my short put trades came close to the strike price. That is when you know you are using excellent screening methods!!!
In addition about an hour before the open I post my pre market comments to subscribers on slack.
All my trading is put out only via Slack.
The cost of subscribing is only $49.00 a month. Considering that most handicapping and stock services charge many times more then that for just one sport, I would say this is one of the best values out there right now.
You have access to every one of the sports plays which now include college hoops that just started. I am off to a great start in college”
hoops with Sides 6-2 and Totals 7-3. Combined record 12-5
To subscribe all one needs to do is 1.go to rickjshandicappingpicks.com 2. select the paypal drop down menu on the first page 3. Select the monthly plan of 49.00 a month and follow the paypal prompts. I will have you added to the email list, slack channels and if you wish to my private twitter feed.
All of the subscription options have a 3 day free trial and if you decide later not to subscribe within the 3 days, you will not be charged. Other wise the service is a month to month service.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks