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It is all about China and the Mideast this morning. Dow -370 My thoughts.

The stock market is plunging this morning off almost 2%. TLT is +.5% And Vix is + 18%. Most everything else is solidly in the red.

I would not play for gap fills today, but be looking at gap continuation plays to the downside. This day has the potential to turn very ugly.

The two big stories are China and Iran.

The China trade deal is looking grim right now, with the U.S. raising Tariffs and the Chinese vowing to retaliate. Neither side is back down from this fight.

The good news is that China cannot afford this fight. If the U.S. ever shifts to producing the goods it buys in China here, the Chinese economy is finished. Logically the Chinese will blink first.

But, the world has gone insane. So the variables to consider have become much more complex.

Power, Ideology, politics all come into play here. The Chinese people look at the long game, while America looks at the short game. They always have and that has been their big problem.

I could write pages and pages about this , but , suffice it to say, this equals substantial volatility ahead. Despite record earning, an astonishing growth rate , U.S markets are still news driven.

Now we come to Iran. There is a military buildup that people need to pay attention to in the Mideast. Not only by the U.S. but by Russia. I would not be surprised to things escalate from here.

Not only do you have a White House that will not back down from a threat, but you have a previous administration hampering the effectiveness of this administration’s policy. The U.S. has never seen anything like this to the scale that it has reached.

It is almost like there is a government within a government, trying to run the country on as a rogue administration. Kerry has admitted openly that he has told U.S. Allies that Trump will not be around much longer. No doubt that messaging has been done by others in the U.S. also.

The damage this has done to America’s interests abroad is monumental. As the previous administration’s foreign policy in my opinion was a dumpster fire.

Where this all leads is anyone’s guess. Fortunately for us, we only have to consider the affect on the markets. It would be a much bigger task to figure out where all this insanity is going to end on the big picture. I have my ideas, but it is not a topic for this site.

So, then how does one trade this mess. #1. reduce your risk by smaller positions. #2. accept the environment, do not fight it. It is a fight you cannot win #3. stick with what has been successful for you, the markets tend to be mean reverting #4 do not panic. Let panic of others create opportunity for you.

That is my short list:) If you cannot stay away from the Panic feeling quit trading. Trading is meant to be methodical, and organized.

I most likely will not be taking any trades this morning, except any stops I have in place. At the end of the day if the carnage is bad enough I will start a mean reversion trade in SPY. I do it in 1/4 increments.

I only have 1 mean reversion trade on at this point and it is in INTC. Its under water, but with mean reversion there are no stops. But, I have avoided putting on more than 1 mean reversion trade to this point, which is some consolation:)

As a part of my sports handicapping subscription I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. It is free. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:) In addition, I share all my short term swing trades to subscribers.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

https://rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing

Skype: Ricca

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4-0 in MLB Friday for +4.21 Units! Some thoughts.

On Friday we had 6 plays. Our 4 MLB Overnight plays went 4-0 for +4.21 Units. We won with St Louis +115 9-5 and LAA +106 6-2, Miami U 7.5-114 1-6 and Toronto U 9-113 6-0.

We had two plays in college hoops and split. Winning with Auburn +5.5 97-80 and losing with LSU +6 63-80.

Today so far we have 2 plays pending , both in MLB overnight sides.

As most of you that have been following me this is the 3rd year that I am offering the 50% refund if we do not a winning regular season in MLB. So far I have not have to made a refund:)

I have extended the time to qualify for this to 1 week from opening day. After that the special is no longer available. It also requires you to be with us through the end of regular season.

The subscription price covers all sports I handicap during your subscription, and unlike most, it is a small monthly subscription where you can cancel at the end of the 30 days. Unlike many services that charge 4 figures in a lump sum for 1 sport.

I have been doing this know for over 15 years and have many long time subscribers. Almost all of my new subscribers is by word of mouth as I do little to no advertising. This is purely a hobby for me. Its something I enjoy, otherwise I would not be doing it.

My goal is not only to produce positive EV plays but also educate people interested in the minefields of sports betting.

Its no easy task to beat the bookmakers. I would say of the universe of sports bettors maybe 1% successfully win consistently. And even then, variance is something you always have to be mindful of.

A reading of my “required reading section” and my “FAQ” section should introduce you to these concepts. In addition, my 2+2 article on handicapping the NFL is an interesting read. Link is on top of the page.

This site is very transparent. You can see the historical results from years ago on this site, and the last 3 years at google sheets, which I keep current daily. Email me for the link if you are interested.

All plays are sent out via email, Twitter and Viber.

All subscriptions have a 3 day free trial. Just pick the paypal menu and join us:) Hope to see you soon.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

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NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Over an 8 year period:

1 unit plays

Sides

121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI

Totals:

48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI

NFL

8 years beginning 2007

103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI

#4 OVERALL for 2016!!!

See sportswatchmonitor.com for documented 2016 in all sports.
#4 of all handicappers for all results for 2016!!!

THE SPORTS MONITOR LAST SEASON DOCUMENTED RESULTS

NFL

33-21 61.11% 18.33% ROI

http://www.thesportsmonitor.com/15nfl.html

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Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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