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A MLB Special again for 2020, also a rundown of the last 3 years of MLB with an update on other sports.

MLB is almost here and right now MLB has become the top sport for profit in the last few years. Ever since I added the Overnights, both on the sides and totals we have produced +30 units in the last two years!

3 years ago I started my special where I guaranteed 1/2 of the subscription refunded if I had a losing season. I did that as I was that satisfied with my back-testing on the overnight plays.

The first year we squeaked by with a 2.715 unit gain, as I had made the overnights 1/2 unit plays.

Then in 2018, I moved all the overnights to 1 unit plays, and we ended the season with a 13.43 Unit gain.

In 2019, we improved upon that with a +17.03 Unit gain.

So again in 2020, I am offering the same special. If I have a losing season you get 1/2 of the subscription fee refunded to you. I thought about offering a 100% refund, but, I put a lot of work into this:)

The only rule is that you subscribe to the first week of MLB regular season and continue through the end of the regular season.

A few things to notice. You have to have access to overnight lines. The more the better. You want outs that put the lines out before most of the other books do. If you cannot take the time to do this small thing, then do not bother to sign up. There is very little value in Baseball unless you take advantage of the overnight wagers. Saying that our 1 unit regular totals last season were +6.24 units and +10.5 units in 2018. So regular totals have been solid.

In sports, over the years, it is interesting to see how the different sports have changed in making money. For instance one of the toughest sports, the NBA we are +5.7 Units thanks to the early season 1st half wager setups. These were something new I added this season. They were very solid, but only last the first few weeks of the season.

In college hoops, we got off to a dismal start and scratched back losing less than 10 Units. The season is not over, and we are still in the 2nd part of the college hoop season.

As you know there are four seasons in college hoops. We are about to enter season 3 of the 4, and then finally on to march madness. We are doing fine in season 2 of college hoops. Season 1 setups that had been profitable in the past crashed and burned this year. I will be looking them over in detail during the off-season.

For those of you that have been following me from the beginning (over 15 years ago), you know that football both college and pro have been Solid.

They were so solid for a while that I had the CEO of one of the major sportsbooks give me a call and want to sign me up with them. I elected not to do that, as this is a hobby for me and the last thing I need at my age is a full-time job:)

But football has gotten tougher over the last 3 to 4 years. The “sharps” have made it a bit harder to find value. Some Variables I use are not as reliable, although I still believe there is value in football. We started off very strong this season in both but then waned off at the end to end up about break-even for both.

But baseball has kept us solidly on the plus side, with over 30 units the last 2 years. If you can make 15 to 20 units a year betting sports, you are ahead of 99% of the sports bettors out there. Very few people end up on the plus side betting sports every day.

So, that is my run down. It was long overdue. But with MLB upon us, I thought this was a good time to give an update.

If you are thinking about joining us this season, I would love to have you. I send out the overnight plays early afternoon for the next day.

If anyone has any questions, you can email me or get a hold of me on skype.

With March Madness here, now would be an excellent time to join us. Just go to the PayPal dropdown menu and subscribe!!!

RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Skype: riccja

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Westgate NFL Contest week 17 picks, Westgate top and bottom 5, Lesson of the week, Updated political odds all posted

We are heading into Week 17 of the Westgate NFL Supercontest and I sit at 44-35-1 or 55.7%. The Tie give me a half-point, so I sit at 44.5. A long way from 60%:(. I went 3-1-1 last week and even with a 5-0 day today I would be out of the money.

In college football this week my bowl picks have been dreary.

This week I had Iowas State +3.5 (L), Memphis +6.5 (L), Miami -7(L). So an 0-3 week bringing my record in college football to 31-26-1 or 54.4%. That is a 4.2% ROI.

For NFL Plays last week we had Seattle U51(W), Cleveland U 49(W), Jets +3.5(w) Tenn +3.5 (L). That gave us a 3-1 week in the NFL last week for plays bringing the season to date to 22-18 or 55%. We got off to a slow start in the NFL but it has now overtaken college football this season.

Both are profitable, which has been typical over the years.

In the All Spread contest where I pick every game against the spread, I sit at 132-108-0 or 55%. That is an incredible number:) Beating college football plays and also tieing my Westgate record. If you beat every one of these you would be +13.2 Units:) I send these picks out to subscribers.

The lesson of the week:

I am going to again concentrate on Variance. We are in our worst downswing in a while, and it actually has not been that bad, it just seems worse then what it is. Whenever I go into a downswing I always recommend reading the must-read portion of this site. It will get your thinking right.

The downswings separate the professionals from the part-time bettors. The professionals expect downswings and have it built into their money management techniques. Myself, I view them as an academic amusement more than anything else.

I remember when I had sat down at a limit poker game and went through 4 racks in about an hour. I had had an incredible run of cards and lost with every hand. (you do not lose much money when you are not getting hands). The guy next to me, a good friend who had a similar mindset as mine when it comes to variance, looked at me and asked, “What is your downside limit”?

I asked him, what is the difference if you go through 10 racks in a session or in 4 weeks? If you are playing well and the game is good it is merely variance. He answered that he agreed, but said that after two racks he tends to lose his temper so he quits:)

That illustrates as best I can my mindset on gambling. If you have a positive EV, you weather the swings. If you cannot do that, then no need to even get started in this endeavor.

It is not for everyone, and few can handle day after day. I enjoy it otherwise I would not be doing it. My methods have withstood over 15 years of posting plays online. We have had our ups and downs but in the end, we end up on the plus side.

Your biggest enemy once you have a positive EV is yourself. You always have to fight human nature. That is what gets most. Human nature kicks in and finishes most off:)”

Now that might be the last on variance for awhile. But its the most important subject of all.

My picks for the Westgate this week are:

Houston +3.5
Chargers +9
Giants +4.5
Jets +1
Denver -3.5

Week 17 has a lot of different considerations then the first 15 weeks. Week 16 is sort of a transition week.

I will go over in detail each game today with subscribers a bit later.

In the Westgate Supercontest, the top 5 picks went 2-2-1 last week bringing its record to 41-36-2. This is an outperforming season for them this year, as typically they are hard-pressed to break even.

The top 5 this week is:

Giants
Tenn
Seattle
KC
Indy

I am with them on the Giants, fading them with Houston and the Chargers.

The bottom 5 this week are:

Jacksonville
Arizona
Carolina
Dallas
Chargers

I am on the charger in the Bottom 5.

Now let’s see how the political odds have changed this week:

Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 9/91 -1 Pts (This is the one to watch) Staying at the lows.

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 90/10 No Change (Another one to watch) Staying at the highs

Which Party wins the Presidency in 2020: It is virtually a tossup at this point with the Dems having lost any edge they had a month ago.

Control of the House after 2020: Dems 73/27 No Change ( I think there is value taking the odds on this one, you are getting over 2 to 1 and the negative effect of impeachment, in my opinion, has not been built into the line yet. A better wager will be to bet against every incumbent house member that voted to impeach in 2020 that reside in states that Trump carried. That will be around 30 wagers. You will probably get +odds on most on the open, and I cannot see losing over 50% with the potential over winning over 60% of them. This is probably the best wager that will come around in a long time. Except of course for the Netanyahu wager, I made 100% on a few months ago:)

That was a wager where very few understood how Israel elections worked. You were getting a nice price on a wager that had the wrong favorite.

Control of the Senate after 2020: 72/28 Republicans. No Change I would lay the 2 to 1 here but the overlay is not as great as I see it as in taking the odds on the House race.

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 47/53 -1 Pts
Warren: 6/84 No Change
Biden: 24/76 +1 Pts
Buttigieg 7/83 No Change
Sanders 18/84 +1 Pts
Bloomberg 4/86 -2 Pt
Clinton 2/98 No Change

Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31/20 38/62 -1 Pts I laid 38/62 ( My wager is right at where I bought into it. My plan to lay it off with a 20% quick gain is not working out so well) I think Durham will bring indictments soon, and that should give this wager a big boost. I plan on laying it off with a nice gain once that happens. Perhaps in the next month.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

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Testimonials

Thanks Rick! Just want to also say that I really enjoy following along with your plays and swing trades. Also really enjoy the blog, I read it every day.

Rickj7

NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Over an 8 year period:

1 unit plays

Sides

121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI

Totals:

48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI

NFL

8 years beginning 2007

103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI

#4 OVERALL for 2016!!!

See sportswatchmonitor.com for documented 2016 in all sports.
#4 of all handicappers for all results for 2016!!!

THE SPORTS MONITOR LAST SEASON DOCUMENTED RESULTS

NFL

33-21 61.11% 18.33% ROI

http://www.thesportsmonitor.com/15nfl.html

Categories

Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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