Rickjs Handicapping Picks - Sports Betting at its finest
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NFL Week 3 Circa Picks, Week 2 Recap, Thoughts on other issues

Week 2 in the NFL I came back to earth:)

I went 2-3 in the Circa contest thanks to Baltimore Sunday evening. Its always grim when you are 1-3 going into your last

play.

In addition my plays I sent out to subscribers did not fare any better going 1-3 Bringing my plays to 4-4 on the Season

In the ALL Spread contest I went 9-7 last week bringing my record there to 18-15 or 54.54% against the spread picking

every game. I send these out to subscribers with commentary the day of the game.

In the Westgate super contest the top 5 picks went a whopping 0-5! Bringing their record after the first two

weeks to 2-8. As I had mentioned fading the top 5 has been a winner most seasons. 

 

My 5 Picks this week in the Circa Contest are:

Wash +7.5

Saints +3

Chargers +6.5

Miami +4

Rams +1.5

I am on none of the top 5 in the Westgate , I am fading 2 of the top 5 this week. Right where I like to be:)

 

This week the Westgate top 5:

KC

Dallas

Indy

San Fran

Tampa Bay

 

The Westgate bottom 5 this week are:

Hou

Car

Jax

Jets

Bears

I am on none of the bottom 5 this week.

 

Today so far I have sent out no plays in the NFL.

 

The first two weeks was rather easy for me in finding picks and plays. This week not so much. I do not know if that is good or bad:)

On the Investing side of my service for the first time ever I could find no 2 day short puts with any value. I added a few income trades last week. Those have been very solid , not only producing around 8% in dividend returns but also a hefty amount of capital gains.

My premonition of last week being the weakest week of the year was correct, as the early in the week dip was enough to give me a nice gain shorting SPY. I got out of the position on Tuesday. 

This part of my service is perhaps the most overlooked. Every morning before the open I give a rundown of various things I am looking at that includes objective measures of what to expect during the day. I try to correlate the political events to how they may affect the markets. 

My comments that Powell would not tighten either by way of asset sales or interest rate hikes was accurate as they stayed steady the last meeting. The worry now is the debt ceiling, but as we all know the government will not shut down. The brinkman ship continues, and at the last second something will be passed.

As a subscriber you have access to all plays from all sports, and also most of my trades and commentary.

For trading I use Slack exclusively, and for plays I use Slack, Twitter and email. You can use all 3 if you like.

The cost of the service is only 49.00 a month. You get a 3 day free trial, and have the option to quit anytime.  Unlike other services far less successful who charge thousands and lock you in for the entire season. It is one of the few values left in sports services at this point.

I have been providing this for 20 years now and most of my subscribers come from word of mouth. 

If you wish to subscribe go to rickjshandicappingpicks.com, click on the PayPal button and choose the monthly subscription.

There is an option for a yearly subscription. But I do not recommend it until you have been a subscriber for a few months. Betting sports is not for everyone. It has its ups and downs. Few can weather the variance let alone come up with +EV methods.

I do much better then most for far less the money. 

Good Luck Today

Rick J

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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NFL week 2 Circa picks, Week 1 recap, some thoughts on various other ideas posted

Week 1 was a good week in the NFL for me.

I went 3-1 in plays, 3-2 in the Circa contest and 9-8 in the contest where I pick every game against the spread. So off to a good start!

I have sent out two plays to subscribers so far today.

My Circa picks this week in no particular order are:

Houston +13
Phil +3
Jacksonville +6
Jets +6
Balt +3.5

The Westgate top 5 last week went 2-3. As I indicated , typically it is correct to fade the top 5. Although recently it has not been as strong as previous years.

The Westgate top 5 this week is:

Pitt

Phil

KC

Rams

Ariz

I am on 1 of the top 5 and Not fading any of them.  Usually I like to be fading at least 2 of them. So we will see:)

The bottom 5 this week is:

Indy

NO

NE

Sea

Mia

In trading I made a fortuitous shift toward the end of last week that I typically do not do. I was long SPY and a Swiss ETF as part of mean reversion trading.

However, As Friday was options expiration and historically Sept has been very weak after the open on options expiration day, I exited my two longs and went short SPY. This is contrary to a well established mean reversion system but I felt the circumstances made it a reasonable shift.

Combine that with this coming week tending to be the weakest of the year and it made more sense.

One could also discuss the political backdrop that also made this reasonable, but I wish to stay away from Politics on this site. I have had both liberals and conservatives follow my picks over the years. I doubt any wish to hear any views I have that may be contrary to their accepted thinking on issues. So, best to keep this objectively based on probabilities.

I had 4 short put trades on Thursday and they were an easy 4-0 for +$470.00. These have been as solid a method as I have ever seen. Since I started publishing them on slack I have had a 94% win rate with a profit factor of 3.72. Drawdowns have been minimal.

As a subscriber you have access to not only my sports plays and discussion but also my trading.

To sign up just 1.go to rickjshandicappingpicks.com 2. find the paypal dropdown menu 3. subscribe to the monthly.  It is a good value and all have a 3 day free trial in the event you reconsider.

Good Luck Today for Week 2 in the NFL

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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Testimonials

Thanks Rick! Just want to also say that I really enjoy following along with your plays and swing trades. Also really enjoy the blog, I read it every day.

Rickj7

NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Over an 8 year period:

1 unit plays

Sides

121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI

Totals:

48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI

NFL

8 years beginning 2007

103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI

#4 OVERALL for 2016!!!

See sportswatchmonitor.com for documented 2016 in all sports.
#4 of all handicappers for all results for 2016!!!

THE SPORTS MONITOR LAST SEASON DOCUMENTED RESULTS

NFL

33-21 61.11% 18.33% ROI

http://www.thesportsmonitor.com/15nfl.html

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Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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