0

Sat NFL Recap and free NFL Roadmap for Phil/NO posted

This is going to be short today as I have a number of things to do to get ready for tomorrows stock market.

On Saturday we had a 1/2 unit play on KC -4 and it was an easy winner. As I explained to subscribers KC was the best of the bunch for the weekend. And I reinforced that this morning.

Its rare to find a play in the playoffs as the lines are typically pretty solid. But KC was one of them.

My free NFL Road Map for today:

46% PHIL 52.5

54% NO -10+111 -8.5-103 -7.5 -8-113

These are the pinnacle and Cris opening and current lines on the games. I have found taking a look at both give you a better picture of the moves in relation to the public % betting.

Model Edge: No Edge

Variable Edge: Phil No Edge +

Public % Edge: No Edge

There is not much here to go on in this game. Historically dogs of a touchdown or greater in the first round of the playoffs tend to have value. Dallas was one of those last night and lost by a 1/2 a point:)

So you have the same situation with Phil tonight. But that is it as I see it. Certainly not enough to consider wagering your hard earned money on. Or even if your money comes easy, I would wait for a better spot.

Sometimes, you just have to watch a game when there is no action on it. I know its tough, I have been there and done that. But in the long run, when everyone else is dusted and sworn off betting, you will still be around having a good time wagering.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

0

Nfl Week 17: Westgate NFL contest picks, Westgate Top 5, and roadmap for Bears/Minn game posted

My Record in the Westgate this season is 45-33-2 or about 57%. A respectable showing but you will need 63% to get in the top 100! The leader is at 71%. 

My Record in the Westgate this season is 45-33-2 or about 57%. A respectable showing but you will need 63% to get in the top 100! The leader is at 71%. 

How you do in this tournament is your ev + variance. And with that many entrants, you are going to need a big positive variance to get in the money. 

We are in Week 17 now the last week of regular season, and you can pretty much throw all the handicapping rules out you used for the regular season in Week 17.

I sent out considerations to subscribers for week 17. In addition, a breakdown of each game and how these considerations apply to each game.

My picks for Week 17 :


Westgate NFL Contest Picks (Not Plays) In the order I liked them at the time


wash +6.5

denver +6.5

jets +13.5

giants -6.5

tenn +3

The Westgate top 5 went 3-2 last week bringing its record for the season to 41-39-0. That is a stellar performance for the top 5 as typically they are around 45% or lower.

This weeks top 5:

Indy

Cleve

Buff

Phil

Minn

I am fading 2 of the top 5 including their #1 pick. That is exactly where I like to be. I am on none of the top 5.

My free NFL game Breakdown of the day:

Bears 54% 40.5
Minn 46% -3-108 -6-106 -4 -6-105
Models: Strong Edge Bears
Variables: Minn very slight edge
Public % : No Edge


An interesting game from the standpoint of where the teams sit in the playoff race. The bears get a #2 or #3 seed. Minn is in a much win and if they lose they need the eagles to lose.


Typically, in these games the edge goes against the team that has to win. But this game has an interesting twist to it, as the Bears have little to play for. So the question is whether they will be resting players today.

The line has moved 2 pts on Cris. So its a mixed bag in this game. If the bears had a 2 seed locked up I would say Minn gets the nod here, but since the bears still have a seed to gain by winning and the line is inflated as Minn has to win, Bears get the nod.

But you see there are a lot of considerations in week 17 you do not usually find in the regular season:) Makes it interesting but much more difficult to handicap.

In addition, these are not set in stone. Sometimes, these considerations do not play out the way you would think. After all if they always did it would not be gambling:)

For subscribers, I break down every NFL game this way along with every College Football Game.  


The NFL playoffs will be here before you know it. Would be a great time to give us a try if you have been on the fence:)
You get the benefit of not only getting all the NFL plays and Road Maps. But College football Plays and Roadmaps, NBA plays, NHL plays and College basket plays as part of your subscription. 


The cost is only $49 a month, and for first-time subscribers, if before 14 days you want your money back, I will refund you the entire amount.

You can sign up via my website, rickjshandicappingpicks.com and picking the monthly option under the PayPal menu or you can sign up via this link:
https://paypal.me/Rickjsports/49.00

Hope to see you join us for a fun NFL playoff season. 

Good Luck Today 
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks 
rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

Subscribe Via Paypal


Subscription Options
Includes Free Trial



Testimonials

I have been following you for years and been paying down my mortgage with your plays year after year. There is services out there that are 10x more expensive with nowhere near the data and thought that you put into your plays (not that I want you to raise your price!:)) and most of them are losing bettors (trust me I have been thru them all) I will say that this year too is the first year I have had a book quit me because I beat them so bad, not many services can say that.

rickj8

NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Over an 8 year period:

1 unit plays

Sides

121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI

Totals:

48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI

NFL

8 years beginning 2007

103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI

#4 OVERALL for 2016!!!

See sportswatchmonitor.com for documented 2016 in all sports.
#4 of all handicappers for all results for 2016!!!

THE SPORTS MONITOR LAST SEASON DOCUMENTED RESULTS

NFL

33-21 61.11% 18.33% ROI

http://www.thesportsmonitor.com/15nfl.html

Categories

Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

Contact Us

We're not around right now. But you can send us an email and we'll get back to you, asap.

Not readable? Change text. captcha txt
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!
Sign up now for our daily newsletter. Includes handicapping tips

NFL and College football is hot this season!

RickJ's Handicapping Picks  The latest in positive EV handicapping Techniques
Sign up now for our daily newsletter with handicapping tips 
Close
Rickj's Handicapping Picks