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Westgate NFL Contest week 17 picks, Westgate top and bottom 5, Lesson of the week, Updated political odds all posted

We are heading into Week 17 of the Westgate NFL Supercontest and I sit at 44-35-1 or 55.7%. The Tie give me a half-point, so I sit at 44.5. A long way from 60%:(. I went 3-1-1 last week and even with a 5-0 day today I would be out of the money.

In college football this week my bowl picks have been dreary.

This week I had Iowas State +3.5 (L), Memphis +6.5 (L), Miami -7(L). So an 0-3 week bringing my record in college football to 31-26-1 or 54.4%. That is a 4.2% ROI.

For NFL Plays last week we had Seattle U51(W), Cleveland U 49(W), Jets +3.5(w) Tenn +3.5 (L). That gave us a 3-1 week in the NFL last week for plays bringing the season to date to 22-18 or 55%. We got off to a slow start in the NFL but it has now overtaken college football this season.

Both are profitable, which has been typical over the years.

In the All Spread contest where I pick every game against the spread, I sit at 132-108-0 or 55%. That is an incredible number:) Beating college football plays and also tieing my Westgate record. If you beat every one of these you would be +13.2 Units:) I send these picks out to subscribers.

The lesson of the week:

I am going to again concentrate on Variance. We are in our worst downswing in a while, and it actually has not been that bad, it just seems worse then what it is. Whenever I go into a downswing I always recommend reading the must-read portion of this site. It will get your thinking right.

The downswings separate the professionals from the part-time bettors. The professionals expect downswings and have it built into their money management techniques. Myself, I view them as an academic amusement more than anything else.

I remember when I had sat down at a limit poker game and went through 4 racks in about an hour. I had had an incredible run of cards and lost with every hand. (you do not lose much money when you are not getting hands). The guy next to me, a good friend who had a similar mindset as mine when it comes to variance, looked at me and asked, “What is your downside limit”?

I asked him, what is the difference if you go through 10 racks in a session or in 4 weeks? If you are playing well and the game is good it is merely variance. He answered that he agreed, but said that after two racks he tends to lose his temper so he quits:)

That illustrates as best I can my mindset on gambling. If you have a positive EV, you weather the swings. If you cannot do that, then no need to even get started in this endeavor.

It is not for everyone, and few can handle day after day. I enjoy it otherwise I would not be doing it. My methods have withstood over 15 years of posting plays online. We have had our ups and downs but in the end, we end up on the plus side.

Your biggest enemy once you have a positive EV is yourself. You always have to fight human nature. That is what gets most. Human nature kicks in and finishes most off:)”

Now that might be the last on variance for awhile. But its the most important subject of all.

My picks for the Westgate this week are:

Houston +3.5
Chargers +9
Giants +4.5
Jets +1
Denver -3.5

Week 17 has a lot of different considerations then the first 15 weeks. Week 16 is sort of a transition week.

I will go over in detail each game today with subscribers a bit later.

In the Westgate Supercontest, the top 5 picks went 2-2-1 last week bringing its record to 41-36-2. This is an outperforming season for them this year, as typically they are hard-pressed to break even.

The top 5 this week is:

Giants
Tenn
Seattle
KC
Indy

I am with them on the Giants, fading them with Houston and the Chargers.

The bottom 5 this week are:

Jacksonville
Arizona
Carolina
Dallas
Chargers

I am on the charger in the Bottom 5.

Now let’s see how the political odds have changed this week:

Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 9/91 -1 Pts (This is the one to watch) Staying at the lows.

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 90/10 No Change (Another one to watch) Staying at the highs

Which Party wins the Presidency in 2020: It is virtually a tossup at this point with the Dems having lost any edge they had a month ago.

Control of the House after 2020: Dems 73/27 No Change ( I think there is value taking the odds on this one, you are getting over 2 to 1 and the negative effect of impeachment, in my opinion, has not been built into the line yet. A better wager will be to bet against every incumbent house member that voted to impeach in 2020 that reside in states that Trump carried. That will be around 30 wagers. You will probably get +odds on most on the open, and I cannot see losing over 50% with the potential over winning over 60% of them. This is probably the best wager that will come around in a long time. Except of course for the Netanyahu wager, I made 100% on a few months ago:)

That was a wager where very few understood how Israel elections worked. You were getting a nice price on a wager that had the wrong favorite.

Control of the Senate after 2020: 72/28 Republicans. No Change I would lay the 2 to 1 here but the overlay is not as great as I see it as in taking the odds on the House race.

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 47/53 -1 Pts
Warren: 6/84 No Change
Biden: 24/76 +1 Pts
Buttigieg 7/83 No Change
Sanders 18/84 +1 Pts
Bloomberg 4/86 -2 Pt
Clinton 2/98 No Change

Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31/20 38/62 -1 Pts I laid 38/62 ( My wager is right at where I bought into it. My plan to lay it off with a 20% quick gain is not working out so well) I think Durham will bring indictments soon, and that should give this wager a big boost. I plan on laying it off with a nice gain once that happens. Perhaps in the next month.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

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Westgate NFL Contest Picks week 16, Westgate top and bottom 5, Lesson of the week, Updated political odds all posted.

We are heading into week 16 of the Westgate NFL Supercontest and I sit at 42-34-1 with three games left today for week 16 Picks. That is 55.2 % picking five games each week. A solid showing but to cash you have to hit over 60%. Week 16 started out good with a win on the Rams and a tie on TB.

In College football, the bowl games have started and my first bowl pick was a loss with Alcorn St +3. They scored over 40 pts and still lost by 20:)

That brings College football season to date to 31-23-1 or 57.4%.

We had 1 NFL play Last week with Jacksonville +6.5 and it was a winner. Yesterday we had 2 NFL plays. Rams +7 a winner and the Rams Under was a loser. That brings my season to date record for plays in the NFL to 19-17.

Lesson of the week:

I am going to talk about Variance again. We lost 4.5 units the last 7 days or so, and I had some emails from a few subscribers that elicited some concern:) All I can say is -4.5 units is a blip. It is not even worth mentioning. When we get to a 20 to 30 unit downswing then you can proudly say you survived a real downswing. Those are the downswings that eliminate the bettors that have no money management skills or have unrealistic expectations.

I do not even think of downswings anymore, as I have learned its all part of the process. Now, few people are trained like I am in dealing with downswings. But 16 years playing full time at the limit poker tables in Vegas, and double that for sports betting daily and I can tell you about downswings:) In the end, it is all about probability theory. At least as long as you are a positive EV gambler. If you are not then it will not matter.

Make no mistake Variance is one of the most difficult battles successful gamblers have to fight. But once you get your mind right, you are on your way to winning it.

My Westgate NFL Contest Picks this week are:

TB +3 ( Push)
Rams +7 (Win)
Miami -1
Jets +3
Tenn +3

Last week the Westgate Top 5 went 3-2 bring their record to 39-34-2. That is a rarity for them as usually, the top 5 is something you want to fade. I assume this is a random event rather than a change of trend.

The Westgate top 5 this week are:

Buff(Lost)
Hou (Push)
KC
GB
Tenn

I faded two of the top 5 and am with them on Tenn.

The bottom 5 this week are:

Atl
Jets
Pit
Mia
Balt

Pit and the Jets play each other. I am on Miami

The updated political odds this week:

Trump was impeached last week, so that takes that wager off the table, but so far there is no indication the articles of impeachment will be sent to the Senate. There has been a lot of speculation on this decision. Almost too much to even consider at this early juncture. So, it’s best to just wait and see what Pelosi’s scheme is here, as I assure you this was not a random decision. They have something in mind.

Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 10/90 +1 Pts (This is the one to watch) Staying at the lows. There is virtually no chance of a conviction in the Senate. There are a lot of rumors going around, but, ignore them and watch the odds. If they start moving, then perhaps you can give the rumors some credence. Otherwise its all spin.

Trump to get the Republican nomination: 89/11 +4 Pt (Another one to watch) Staying at the highs

Which Party wins the Presidency in 2020: It is virtually a tossup at this point with the Dems having a very slight edge in the odds. This has been narrowing for some time now.

Control of the House after 2020: Dems 72/28 +2 Pts ( I think there is value taking the odds on this one, you are getting over 2 to 1 and the negative effect of impeachment, in my opinion, has not been built into the line yet.

Control of the Senate after 2020: 70/30 Republicans. +2 pts I would lay the 2 to 1 here but the overlay is not as great as I see it as in taking the odds on the House race.

U.S. Presidential winner:

Trump: 47/53 +1 Pts ( A new High)
Warren: 6/94 -4 Pts
Biden: 22/78 +3 Pts
Buttigieg 7/83 – 2 Pts
Sanders 15/85 -1 Pts
Bloomberg 4/96 -1 Pt
Clinton 2/98 – 4 Pts

Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31/20 37/63 -3 Pts I laid 38/62 (Staying right around where I got into the wager.)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

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NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Over an 8 year period:

1 unit plays

Sides

121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI

Totals:

48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI

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8 years beginning 2007

103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI

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Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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