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Revisiting the current pollical odds landscape

Several key primaries coming up soon.

The one race that seems strange to me is Murkowski in Alaska. Most votes goes to TShibaka 79/25 But the odds of Murkowski getting reelected is 71/29. I am not sure how to reconcile that one.

Murkowski has said several times she thinks she might not win the primary. That would have been my thought considering that virtually every endorsement of Trumps has won.

Next in Arizona it appears Cheney is finished. She is a 95/5 dog in the race. That seems about right to me.

For governor Lake is a 90/10 favorite to get the nomination. That also seem spot on.

Next speaker of the house , McCarthy is a 76/% favorite.  I like the other side of that one. The Republicans will most likely take the house, but depending on how the primary’s go, McCarthy may not get the vote to Speaker.  Getting 3 to 1 is not a bad number on that one.

There are races now for the midterms even though in some the candidate is not set.  Walker in Ga is a 4/6 dog to get that Senate seat. I have bet that race at much worse odds. I layed 6/4 on Walker. So obviously I would be taking 4/6 here.

Control of the Senate is 51/49 Republicans.  That is probably the correct line. The GOP has pissed off enough of the base that this will be a close one. The question is what % of the base will not turn out for them. They have gone out of their way to not take the Senate back. If I was forced to wager on this I would take the Dems.

In the House the line is 87/15 in favor of the Republicans. I would not lay that number. But I doubt the Dems will be able to keep the House.

Biden is a 31% chance of getting the Dem nomination. I would take the other side of that one and lay the odds. I do not see any  chance of him getting the nomination in 2024. You can lay 3 to 1 and rest easy.

Arizona Senate race has the Dems a 57/43 Favorite. I would take the odds on this one. Its a tossup at best.

Trump and DeSantis are tied at 29% to win the Presidency in 2024.  My opinion is if DeSantis on on the top of the ticket the line should be around 10 to 1 that he wins. If Trump is on top of the ticket its probably 10 to 1 against. If you think 2020 was bad, they will double down to make sure Trump does not win. DeSantis on the other hand would get the support that Trump does not have from the establishment, and the Hispanic vote would turn out in record numbers.

Let me add, I am not convinced Trump is going to run. I would put the line out at a tossup right now.

If anyone has any particular race they are interested drop me an email.

Also remember that NCAA FB starts on 8/27, less than a month away.

I have had MLB season free for everyone. But that ends on 8/27. All subscriptions that have been put on pause

will start back up then. And those that are on a free subscription will need to sign up to continue getting plays.

You can sign up on my web site rickjshandicappingpicks.com using the paypal menu.

All free accounts that are not signed up will be discontinued on that date.

Hope to see you join us for the upcoming NFL and NCAA FB Season

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

 

 

 

 

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MLB Pre Allstar Break results, Football 5 weeks away, transition back from free to subscription date All posted

Those that have been following along this MLB season know that MLB this season has been free for everyone. This was a result of my using a new database for my overnight  plays in MLB.

This free season included everything subscription subscribers were receiving 1. Play sent out via email 2. Access to my two slack channels. That gives you access to not only my plays, but daily comments regarding the stock market and the policies that are moving the markets.

In addition, you get access to most of my trades, which I post shortly after I make them.

Again, this has all been free from day 1 of the MLB season, and will continue to be free until 8/27/2022 when the first games of the NCAA FB season begin.

At that time free subscribers will have the option to continue their subscription at $49.00 a month. Current subscribers whose subscriptions  are on pause, will pick up right where they left off. The will go from pause to active on that date.

There is still time to jump on board for 5 more weeks of the free service. All one needs to do is send an email to [email protected]

If anyone has any questions let me know.

Now lets go over the pre all star break results:

As I view it so far the new database has been a success as it relates to the overnight Sides.  But looking at the totals, not so much.
We have not had that many total plays during the 1st half of the season, but beating the closing line has been pretty easy.  22-6-8 or 65% of the time. But the net result has been negative.
So, unless this improves, next season will find us wagering only on overnight sides. Which if the 9.28% ROI holds up the 2nd half, the next season will have the potential to be very profitable for these.
Again, you can hop on board with us simply by sending me an email to [email protected] It is free until 8/27.
Let me note, if you are a trader my trades have been very profitable since I have been posting them. This is despite the fact that the trading environment we are in has been some of the toughest I have seen.
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com

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RickJs 6

NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Over an 8 year period:

1 unit plays

Sides

121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI

Totals:

48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI

NFL

8 years beginning 2007

103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI

#4 OVERALL for 2016!!!

See sportswatchmonitor.com for documented 2016 in all sports.
#4 of all handicappers for all results for 2016!!!

THE SPORTS MONITOR LAST SEASON DOCUMENTED RESULTS

NFL

33-21 61.11% 18.33% ROI

http://www.thesportsmonitor.com/15nfl.html

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Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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