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Breakdown of tonights Cleveland Jets game

Monday, September 16th, 2019         
TimeGm#(-) TeamScore  OpenerCRISPincle Model edge Variable Edge Public % Edge70 
16-Sep Cleveland   2½   -6.5-114  -6.5-110  
5:15p NY Jets   4445+2½-101  No EdgeStrong EdgeAvg Edge30

I sit 2-2 in the Westgate Contest this weekend and need Cleveland -2.5 to put me at 5-5 after week 2. We ended up 3-1 on our football picks for the weekend. Oakland never had a chance. 

Tonight is a tough one. Whenever you get a starting quarterback out and the replacement is pretty much an unknown it’s hard to wager on the game. I have heard the line move is too much and I have seen some good bettors come in on Cleveland also. Myself I am staying away from the game. No reason to bet it tonight with the quarterback situation what it is. Saying that you cannot take Cleveland with 72% of the betting on them. Even if they blow the jets out, in hindsight it is still not a good wager. Sometimes it takes a lot of will power to stay away from what seems to be the obvious. 

But the only way you win in the NFL, in the long run, is to be a contrarian. If you go with the public you will end up like the public. Busted.

So I am passing on tonight’s game.

I received an email I would like to share:”

Rick,
Regarding the Oakland/KC game, sometimes you gotta step back from the “numbers” and ask yourself; can this realistically/logically happen?.


Based on simply how overwhelmingly talented KC is, Oakland really never had a chance, to keep the game close, or, much less, to win.


Just my 2 cents worth.


(P.S. – New client and happy overall, so far.)”


Now I am not posting this to embarrass anyone, and there is no way it could as I am not naming anyone. But it is instructional. And as always I like to point out on occasion emails that are instructional.


In sports handicapping, there are a number of givens. #1 The public is the chump #2 If you find yourself with the public then you are doing something wrong #3 the name of the team is irrelevant, its the numbers
We all have some kind of bias when it comes to teams, myself included.

That is why a number of years ago I just forget who the team is. It does not concern me. It’s only the numbers I look at that determines my plays. 


Now, there are going to be winners and there will be losers. But another given is that among all the participants in this endeavor the smartest of all are the bookmakers. They do not put out lines to give money away. So when they put KC out at -7, especially knowing everyone and their brother will be betting KC, the line is not going to be that far off.


So when people tell me, how could you make a bet like that? KC vs Oakland what a cinch. Well, the line makers thought the fair line was -7. That is good enough for me. There are very few handicappers let alone the public that can analyze the line better than the books. In all my years I have run into less than a handful of professional gamblers that had that ability. 


It is human nature to think the way the public thinks. You will have to fight that your entire betting life. But if you do not win that fight you cannot win betting sports. You can take that to the bank:)


Now you can learn the hard way like I have over the many years I have been betting, or you can take advantage of taking some advice. And I know many will still think the public is the way to go on occasion:) Its human nature.


Good Luck today


RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

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NFL and College football results, NFL Westgate SuperContest Picks and Westgate top and bottom 5.

We are heading into Week 2 of the NFL with a nice weekend going. On Thursday I sent out a play on Tampa Bay +7-115 and they won the game outright 20-14.

Then on Saturday, I sent out two plays in college football:

Temple +6.5 and Arizona St +15.5

Both won the games outright:) With Temple a 20-17 win and Arizona St a 10-7 win. Three dogs and three outright wins!

That puts us at 5-2 for College football plays and 2-1-1 for NFL Plays. Not a bad start to the football season for betting.

In the Westgate Supercontest I went 2-3 last week. My picks this week in the order I liked them at the time:

Raiders +7

Miami +18.5

Detroit +2.5

Indy +2.5

Cleveland -2.5

It’s too early to take a contrary view on Cleveland. The line jumped to -6.5 after the news that the starting quarterback for the jets is out. These plays are not automatic for me, as usually with a field of 3300 I like to be a bit of a contrarian on these. But the jump was too large and it’s too early in the season to take a view like this. As it turns out at least 1000 entrants did not take Cleveland as a pick.

So far today I have sent out 1 play to subscribers.

The Westgate top 5 picks started out week 1 going 3-2. Historically it has been a money maker fading the top 5 especially early in the season.

The Westgate top 5 this week is:

Cleveland

Dallas

Pitt

Ciny

Rams

I am fading none of the top 5 and am with the herd on Cleveland.

The bottom 5 were:

Jets

Tampa

New England

Houston

Baltimore

I had a play on Tampa Thursday night , but in the Westgate the line was +6.5 so I did not play it in the contest. Also, I am on the other side of NE.

It’s still not too late to join us as we are in the beginning stages of the NFL and College football. All subscriptions have a 3-day free trial. Just go to the PayPal drop-down menu on this site and choose the monthly option. Hope to see you join us!

Good Luck Today:)

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

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Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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