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18-10-2 heading into week 7 of the Westgate NFL Super-contest! My picks this week and the Westgate top 5 now up.

On Saturday we had 5 plays going 3-2 for +1.34 Units.
 
In College football, we went 2-2 winning with Old Dominion +4 and Clemson -17.5. We lost with Miss St +5.5 and Minn +5
 
In the NHL we won with St Louis +144.
 
We also had 3 Bet or Pass games in college football and lost all 3:(
 
Now onto the NFL!
 
I sit at 18-10-2 heading into week 7 or around 64%. That is a good spot to be in.
 
I just missed a 3-1-1 week last week instead of 2-2-1. Tampa had the 3 covered with only 2 min to go. It was 3 and 2 on Tampa’s 38 yrd line. A first down and I get a run the clock out situation. A miss and it goes down to a 58 yrd field goal.
 
Not a bad spot to be in heading into the end game. However, the 58-yard field goal was made and it was 2-2-1:)
 
Today my Westgate NFL Super Contest picks are :
 
Tenn +6.5
Jets +3
Detroit -2.5
Bears +3
Carolina +4.5
 
Except 1 or 2 games, they all looked much better when I put the picks in.
 
The Westgate top 5 last week went 1-4 bring their record to 12-18-0 or 40%. That is more in line with what they have done historically the first half of the season.

The Westgate Top 5 this week are :

Minn

NE

KC

Det

Balt

 
I am fading the top 2 picks in the contest and am with the 4th pick.
 
Not a bad spot to be, but I like to be on none of the top 5 picks.
My free NFL Road Map for today is:
Rams    66%        -11+101   -8.5   -10   -9.5-101
SF          34%
Model Edge: Slight Edge Rams
Variable Edge:  No Edge
Public % Edge  Avg Edge San Fran
This is an interesting game more from the standpoint I passed on the game both as to a play and also in the Westgate Contest. Usually big home dogs have very good chances at having a positive EV. But here not only do the models lean toward the Rams but there are intangibles that point to the rams also. The problem with taking the Rams here is that you will be with 61% of the public. If there is one rule that will increase your handicapping results it is to use the public % numbers as a filter.
So if you handicap a game. Take a look at where the public is on the game. If it is over 50% thrown the game out. You will be amazed at how much better you will start doing.
Of course its a bit more complicated than that, but as a simple filter, there is few that are better.
 
A few things to note. We are off to a 4-0 start in the NBA. Also in the NHL, we are off about 1 UNIT. We are having a very good season in football this year also.
 
I have also started sending out the trades I make during the trading day via VIBER. So far it is working well. This is only available to subscribers of the handicapping site.
 
As long as this does not become too time consuming for me I will continue to do it. So far, I have had no problems getting the trades out shortly after I make them.
 
Note, these are not recommendations to make a trade. But merely to show what I am trading.
 
If you are a subscriber and have an interest in receiving these send me an email to [email protected]
 
Good Luck Today
 
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Skype: riccja
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Westgate NHL Supercontest Picks and Seattle/Oakland NFL Roadmap are now posted!

For the college football weekend, we had 3 plays and went 1-2. 1-1 in College Football and 0-1 in MLB.
 
UL Monroe +6.5 was an easy winner as they won the game outright. S. Carolina +2.5 lost by 3.
 
We had a very good day in our bet or pass games. 3-0 on Bet or Pass totals and 4-1 for Bet or Pass Sides.
 
We had buffalo under 54, Rice Under 52 and Texas under 58.5 all easy winners.
 
For bet or pass sides we won with
Tulsa +9.5
Liberty +10.5
UL Monroe +6.5
BYU -10.5
 
We lost with Georgia Tech -2.
 
So 7-1 for Bet or Pass game this college football weekend!
 
 
In MLB we had Milwaukee which we lost as they blew a 3-0 lead heading into the 7th losing 4-3:(
 
As we head into week 6 in the Westgate NFL Supercontest I sit at 16-8-1 or 66%. That puts me just out of the top 100 spots in a field of almost 3,000.
 
This week was the toughest yet by far:( 3-2 would be a nice surprise:)
 
My Westgate picks this week are:
 
San Fran +9.5
Oakland +3
Arizona +10
Washington -1
Tampa Bay +3.5
 
The Westgate top 5 went 1-4 last week and is sitting at 11-14. This is one of the best starts for the top 5 I can remember being at 44%:)
 
This week the top 5 in the contest are:
 
Pitt
New England
Jacksonville
Chicago
Indy
 
I am neither with the top 5 or fading any of the top 5. However, SF Arizona and Oakland are in the bottom 5 picked teams. I do not mind that at all:)
 
My free NFL Road Map for today is:
 
Seattle 61% -2.5-112 -3-101 -3-105 -3
 
Oakland 39%
 
Model edge: Strong Edge Oakland
Variable edge: No Edge
Pub % Edge: Slight Edge Oakland
 
The wildcard in this game is it is being played in London. This adds another dimension to the game having to take into consideration Jet Lag. Hard to quantify that one:)
 
But assuming it has the same effect on both teams Oakland gets the nod here. But not enough for it to be a play. Without variables, I do not wager on a game. In addition, public % is 39%. Just under the threshold, I use to infer any kind of edge.
 
For me, the game was a pass.
 
For subscribers, I send out a more detailed breakdown of every NFL and College football game played. Still, time to join us:)
 
New subscribers can join us risk-free. If within 14 days you do not wish to continue I will refund your monthly subscription.
 
If you wish to join us, go to the PayPal menu on the website and I will have you signed on within minutes.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Skype: riccja

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RickJ's 2

NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Over an 8 year period:

1 unit plays

Sides

121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI

Totals:

48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI

NFL

8 years beginning 2007

103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI

#4 OVERALL for 2016!!!

See sportswatchmonitor.com for documented 2016 in all sports.
#4 of all handicappers for all results for 2016!!!

THE SPORTS MONITOR LAST SEASON DOCUMENTED RESULTS

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33-21 61.11% 18.33% ROI

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Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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