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February handicapping results posted

February is now behind us and we picked up 10.45 Units for the month.

NBA +2.45 UNITS

NCAA BB +7.65 UNITS

NHL +.35 UNITS

A solid month and now we are heading into March Madness for College Hoops with post season tournament play and of coure the NCAA Tournament!

One of the major changes I made in college hoops is I have disgarded in games where there was significant volume and very small edges. We are only going to concentrate now on games where the edges are solid and meet a threshold.

That means less plays but as we have seen the variance has dropped substantially and the results have improved significantly.

In addition we have MLB right around the corner. Time flys:) If you are planning on staying on for the MLB season there are a few things to keep in mind:

  1. MLB is not for everyone. Its the toughest grind sport to wager on
  2. 90% of the plays are going to be overnight plays. They will be put out from 2 to 4 pm PST the day before. That means it is essential you have a book or better yet several that have the overnight lines out long before most books release them.
  3. The reason most books wait is these opening lines are soft. They are the softest of all sports. We have had two very good seasons betting these. And this season both the overnight totals and sides will be 1 unit plays.

Its best to start looking now for extra outs. You can never have enough of these. In addition, you need to be ready to wager as soon as they come out. Last season they moved fast the first few weeks. Then , things settled down a bit and you had some time. Each season tends to work out different. So we will see how the timing goes this season.

If your not going to wager on the overnights, take a break from sports betting , and take a look again when football begins. I do not anticipate a lot of regular plays, days place on the day of the game. However, there will be a substantial number of overnights.

Also this season I am going to run the same special I ran the last 3 seasons. If I do not have a profitable MLB regular season I will refund you 50% of the subscription. The only requirements are that you have to be a subscriber from opening day until the last day of regular season.

As I said I have done this the last 3 season and have not had to refund any money:) But you never know. I started this when I became confident enough in the overnights that I would put up half the subscription fee to show my confidence in my MLB methods.

If you want to join us for a fun MLB season, just go to the Paypal dropdown on the site and pick the montly subscription. I will have you signed on the same day. If you sign up now, you can get the March madness NCAA Hoops plays as the subscription is all inclusive for all sports I handicap during your subscription period.

If anyone has any questions I can be reached via email, or via Skype. My user name there is riccja.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

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Superbowl, NE/Rams Roadmap

Superbowl Sunday:

NFL – 2/3/2019
6:30 PM
101 NE-T Brady0-110 -2-108 0-119 -2-110
102 LAR-J Goff 59o-108 56u-114 58.5u-110 56u-110

Public % 72%NE 28% Rams: No Edge +

Models: Slight Edge Rams

Variables: No Edge

Let me start out by giving my typical caveat. Gamblers tend to not only think they have to have a wager on the superbowl, but they also tend to wager more then what is a typical wager for them.

Its sort of like when the World Series of Poker comes to town here in Vegas. Players that you could not talk into moving up from 8-16 to 15-30 Omaha 8 find themselves sitting in a fast moving 75-150 Omaha 8 game:) Its just human nature.

Now, first lets take a look at how the public sees the game. First, top on their minds is Brady and Belichick. How in the world are you going to beat those two in a big game? And less than a field goal? Time to back up the truck as the Rams should not even be in the Superbowl, and are only there because of the call costing New Orleans the game.

Now lets think about it from a more sober perspective. Remember, and never forget, the line makers are the masters at making the lines. Especially in the NFL. When they put the line out as a pick, who did they think the public was going to pound, NE of course. And yet, a pick? So right off the bat that is a red flag that perhaps the public may be a bit delusional in their thinking here. 

The bookmakers have had to move the line 2 pts as of this morning to -2 because of the heavy action on NE.

Now lets look at it from another angle. What is your gut telling you right now. NE of course, as that is exactly what mine is telling me:)  I am thinking from the gut how in the world can you even take the Rams in this spot.

Well, lets look at the numbers.

The models all point to NE being overvalued at -2. My models show the game at anywhere from a pick to Rams -1.5. But there are no key numbers so keep that in mind. The public is 72% on NE as of this morning. That is a pretty high number for the Superbowl. More importantly it means to me that betting on NE is a non starter. 

As far as variables, forget it. One thing about the NFL is that the sample size is small to begin with. When you just consider the Superbowl there really is no sample to evaluate. I have seen a statistic whenever you get a 2 pt move in the Superbowl toward the favorite the favorite wins and covers around 80% of the time. However, that is a sample size of less than 10 game !!! In other words meaningless.

So I am passing today. There is nothing here that I see that has a postive EV Edge unless you want to consider the rams on the money line. And even then its far from a play with my strict requirements.

I know its a tough assignment, but sit back and enjoy the game with no money on it:)

That is what I will be doing.

If the numbers change I will update.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

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Testimonials

I have been following you for years and been paying down my mortgage with your plays year after year. There is services out there that are 10x more expensive with nowhere near the data and thought that you put into your plays (not that I want you to raise your price!:)) and most of them are losing bettors (trust me I have been thru them all) I will say that this year too is the first year I have had a book quit me because I beat them so bad, not many services can say that.

rickj8

NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Over an 8 year period:

1 unit plays

Sides

121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI

Totals:

48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI

NFL

8 years beginning 2007

103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI

#4 OVERALL for 2016!!!

See sportswatchmonitor.com for documented 2016 in all sports.
#4 of all handicappers for all results for 2016!!!

THE SPORTS MONITOR LAST SEASON DOCUMENTED RESULTS

NFL

33-21 61.11% 18.33% ROI

http://www.thesportsmonitor.com/15nfl.html

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Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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