Rickjs Handicapping Picks - Sports Betting at its finest
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MLB plays will be out tomorrow for the overnights!!! Also a recap of the last 2 years in MLB.

My vacation is finally over:)  It will be good to get my mind back in gear handicapping. Its been a tough stretch for me, from handicapping every day of the week to cold turkey. Not from a money standpoint as I do this as a hobby but merely because it is a routine I have been in for over 20 years now.

Who would have thought sports would be shut down for this long. And we are still not out of the woods. I have no idea where the SJW activity of the NFL and the NBA is going to take the sports. There is a lot of talk about the massive boycotts of sports.

The only thing one can do is go with the flow and handicap the games and whatever happens happens.

As far as any influence this might have on the outcome of the games. I suspect it will have some influence but it will be player dependent. Its a variable I might look at later but for now, you would just be guessing. So I will handicap without taking that into account.

MLB plays start tomorrow with the Overnights for Thursday’s opening games. There are only two games so I would not expect much tomorrow but we start the full slate of games on Friday. Things will pick up very fast.

As you recall, I sent out overnight plays early afternoon the day before the games. Overnights are on both Sides and Totals. Then on the day of the game, I am back to my usual handicapping methods. Almost all of the profit however has been in the overnight plays.

So, You need to have at least 1 book that puts out overnight lines on baseball. Preferably two. In addition the earlier the better.

Myself, I can get down as soon as they are released as I have an arrangement with a book who follows my plays. But for those that are not as fortunate, there are online books that get the lines out pretty fast. If you live in Vegas there are several casinos that put out the overnight lines almost as fast as the offshore books.

I have been asked again about the NFL Super contest. I have not decided what I am going to do this year. When I do I will let everyone know. Its still six weeks away from the start of the NFL season.

Now is a good time to look over the last few years of MLB and see where the profit has been:

Last year we ended up +13.7 Units in MLB

1/2 Unit Sides -1.27 Units

1/2 Unit Totals -.5 Units

1 Unit Totals +6.24 Units

1 Unit overnight Sides +1.79 Units

1 Unit overnight Totals +7.44 Units

We had 400+ plays for the season.

It was a busy season, and even with that many plays, the drawdown during the season was minimal. Top to bottom was no more than 10 to 15 units. That is quite remarkable actually. I would expect it to be close to 30 units.

The year before that we ended up +14.43 Units

1 Unit Sides -4.94 Units

1/2 Unit Sides -2.405 Units

1/2 Unit Totals -.015 Units

1 Unit Totals +10.5 Units

1 Unit Overnight sides +13.3 Units

1 Unit Overnight Totals -2.01 Units

We had about 350 Plays for the season

You can see all the records for the last 3 or 4 years at

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10AkTqdb-ikYsN6qaTXTX7w9PgQaW6IvNukLGokgch6M/edit#gid=0

If you wish to go back further then that you can see them on the website.

The Regular season is going to be 60 games in MLB. So its a short season and that will be the outcome less certain. But I am still going to give the 50% refund if I cannot produce a winning season in MLB regular season. So we will see where we stand at the end of the 60 games.

The only requirement is you are subscribed from day 1 until the last day of the season. I have been doing this now for 4 years and so far have not had a losing season:)

I would like to move over to Slack as much as I can as it makes it much easier to send out the plays. However, I will still send them out via twitter, email, SMS, and maybe skype. I will wait to see how many people on skype switch to slack. It is much faster, and you have a lot of options on where you want the messages relayed to.

If anyone has any questions please let me know.

If you wish to sign up, just go to my web site: http://rickjshandicappingpicks.com . Choose the PayPal menu and subscribe. I will get you up and running shortly after you sign up.

One other thing, Its always good after a long break like this to read again the required reading section of the site and the FAQ section. Never hurts to remind yourself of some of the important things in handicapping.

Good Luck To all!

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

http://rickjshandicappingpicks.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

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MLB is here!!! Time to sign up for this season. Specials included. Also political odds posted and my to date “dirty 30” wagers.

It has been a very long haul of no sports but finally, MLB starts on Wednesday!

As you know I suspended all accounts during the forced offseason. On the 23rd all accounts will be made active. You will be in the exact same spot in your subscription you were in when they were suspended.

I will be putting out overnights on Sides and Totals in MLB , early afternoon for the next days games. These have been by far the best money maker in MLB since I started. They have produced winning MLB seasons since I have begun handicapping them.

We went from typically a mundane MLB season and a sport that was around breakeven each year to a sport that now produces 15 to 30 units a year in profit.

You can signup for the before MLB starts by going to the drop-down menu on the first page of the website. This gives you:

  1. All plays in any sport that is covered during your subscription.
  2. Most of my trades made via Slack in realtime. These include short put sales made typically on Thursday for a 2-day hold, Swing trades, and other medium-term trades I take from time to time.
  3.  Access to me virtually anytime for questions about handicapping and trading, via slack, email, twitter or skype
  4. I send my trades out via email, Slack, Skype, and SMS.

The cost is 49.00 a month. Compared to other handicapping services that charge over four figures for 1 sport and cannot compare to my results this is very inexpensive.  In addition, you are free to drop your subscription at any time.

MLB is a 60 game regular season, but I am going to continue my 50% back if we have a losing regular-season special. You just need to be subscribed from day 1 to day 60 to qualify. I started this when I started handicapping overnights. So far have not had to refund any money:) All winning seasons!!!

If anyone has any questions about the above just send me an email to [email protected] But, it will be business as usual starting 7/23rd.

I have gotten a lot of questions regarding how the political climate might affect the handicapping. All I can say right now is it is an unknown. Last year there was no bias you could incorporate into your handicapping that I could find to take advantage of it. This year it seems the political climate has gotten much worse, but still, you would be shooting in the dark to try to take advantage of this from a handicapping standpoint.

The very worst I can see regarding this is it might create a bit more randomness. And I use the word might. The net effect of this would be variance increasing. So, if it were me I would be a bit more conservative in my money management. If I were using 2.5% of my bankroll in my bet sizing, then lower it .5%.  So whatever % you planned to use this season, cut 1/4 to 1/2 % from the bet size. That should be a conservative enough approach.

Its been a while since I have written about the political odds landscape. Since then things have changed a bit. Also, some of the House pairings are out now.

I have long been saying the best wager of 2020 is going to be fading the “dirty 30”. (Dems in House seats where Trump won the general in 2016). Some of those matchups are now out and here are my wagers.

GA-16     29/71  price now 23/77   -6

ME 02     51/49  price now 47/53  -4

IA-01        32/68  price now 32/68  0

SC -01     54/46  price now 53/47   -1

NY-11       36/64 price now 33/67   -3

NJ -03     34/66  price now 32/68 -2

IA-02       29/61 price now 19/91    -10

So of the 30 only 7 matchups have been posted. I will be fading each one as they are posted. The line has moved against me in almost everyone 🙂 So if your planning on taking these you will be getting a better price. I am not going to cherry-pick but just fade all 30.  As expected in most cases you are getting around 2 to 1. I expect that will continue at least until we get a bit closer to the election when these races should tighten up a lot. My expectation is to win at least 50% of these.

Now let’s look at the rest of the political odds:

Dem Nominee:

Biden 92/8  +1 Pt
Clinton 5/95   No Change

It’s looking more and more like it’s going to be Biden.  Since I last posted the only person that is above 1 Pt is Clinton. I still have a lingering feeling that the Dems will dump Biden. But its a real longshot right now.

Dem VP Nomination:

Harris 37/63         -13 Pts
Rice 28/72              +19 Pts
Duckworth 12/88   No Change
Warren 8/92          No Change
Demings 8/92        -6 Pts

 

Harris has dropped a lot, from the front runner to now Susan Rice making a run at her. This reflects the Obama/Clinton influence in the Democrat party. They would love nothing better than Rice in as President.  How this washes out still is a mystery. But typically whoever the party leaders want will get the nomination. It will not be up to the grassroots of the party.

Presidential winner:

Trump 38/62 -1 Pts I took Trump at 45/55.
Biden 61/39  +2Pts

I think Trump getting 3 to 2 is an excellent wager. Starting to get as good as the dirty 30 wagers in terms of equity.

There is one thing you can count on, the polls will be slanted toward Biden by at least 10 pts.  As I noted Trump at even money seems reasonable and now you can get almost 6/4. My take is the outcome will hinge on whether they get voter fraud under control. 2020 will be massive attempts at voter fraud. The establishment will be taking out all stops to get Trump out of office.

The two primary reasons: 1. Very high up people are going to be spending time in prison if he wins  2. He is costing the establishment  a lot of money with his America first policy. All the special interest money is drying up as they cannot produce. Trump is looking out for Americans, not special interests. So the establishment on both sides wants him gone.

I would like to find a wager as to how many senate Republicans vote for Biden:)  Since there is no way of finding out there will not be a line. But my guess is at least 10 will be voting for Biden.

Control of the Presidency: Dems 64/36 -1 Pts

Again I believe the value is on the Republicans, It looks like a repeat of 2016 to me with the polling.

Control of the House:

87/13 Democrats: +1 Pts

I took 4 to 1 and now staring at 6 to 1. Lots of EV in getting 6 to 1 here. I may end up wagering more at this price.    Another good wager is to bet against each of the “dirty 30”

Control of the Senate:

61/39 in favor of the Democrats +1 Pts

I think the Republicans are a good wager here, getting almost 6/4. They have not done themselves any favors, to say the least. But I cannot fathom the electorate going with the Dems with their policy agenda. The better wager to me is getting 6 to 1 on the Republicans regaining the House.

Odds of a recession during Trump’s first term: 96/4    -1 Pts my wager taking 4 to 1 Right now it is looking grim for my wager. Although the technical recession should be very short-lived.

A new line popped up that is interesting:

Will Kanye run in 2020    95/5

I do not think you can wager on this market the way the rules are. There is a lot of play in the interpretation of what constitutes running:)  If the rules were hard and fast I would easily bet against this. Sure he has announced he is running, but with Kayne, that can change on a dime. There needs to be a date certain in the wager. That would make it easier to wager on.

That pretty much sums it up for this post. I will try to post some market comments and go through my short put sales tomorrow before the open. This has been a very profitable endeavor since I started it, as you will see in my next post.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype:riccja

Slack: RickJ

 

 

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RickJs 6

NFL AND COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Over an 8 year period:

1 unit plays

Sides

121-95 56.02% with a 7.64% ROI

Totals:

48-28 63.15% 22.63 ROI

NFL

8 years beginning 2007

103-65 61.3% 18.75%ROI

#4 OVERALL for 2016!!!

See sportswatchmonitor.com for documented 2016 in all sports.
#4 of all handicappers for all results for 2016!!!

THE SPORTS MONITOR LAST SEASON DOCUMENTED RESULTS

NFL

33-21 61.11% 18.33% ROI

http://www.thesportsmonitor.com/15nfl.html

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Letter From a Long Time Follower

“Rick,I am still amazed how you do it. I have followed you almost from the beginning not only from your posting on your website but also you time at 2+2 forums.

I have noticed a continuous improvement year to year in your methods. But the more remarkable thing to me is your persistence in educating and putting out your picks. Almost every site I am familiar with has gone by the wayside. Yet yours keeps getting stronger and stronger.

I have to ask “Where do you get your focus and energy” to keep this up?

You have taught me a lot over the years and I have gone from a “punter” to a reasonable handicapper. Whereas before I was a typical undisciplined sports bettor I am now very aware of the necessity of a disciplined approach. It has done wonders.

In addition, you’re going from a free site to a subscription based site was long overdue. I appreciate your keeping the membership fee low and not trying to “milk” money out of the sports bettors. I know there are many that would pay substantially more to follow your site.

But that goes hand in hand with your persona that you have established in the sports betting world. You most likely do not know it but your name “RickJ” is very well-respected as one of the leading handicappers in sports betting. In addition, your reputation for integrity is as high.

There are very few real things out there but you are definitely the real thing.

Again thank you for all you have done over the years.”

My Response:

It’s hard for me to respond to that as humble a person as I am:) But it’s emails like this that I get from time to time that help keep me motivated.

I have always said in the past that I approach sports handicapping the way crossword puzzle addicts approach their morning routine. I can not think of anything more challenging than trying to figure out EV on sports games.

As far as the subscription cost I have mentioned before my goal was to defer my expenses that keep rising every year as I get more advanced in my techniques. I look at subscribers as partners in this handicapping endeavor rather than customers. Subscribers help me defer my costs and allow me to justify keeping my expensive hobby going.

Thanks for the mail. It’s nice to know I am appreciated!

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