The 2nd game of the NFL:
Betting is 64% on Denver with the line moving from -7+103 to -7 even. You can still get +115 on pitt in some spots and even +7.5 scattered around. This game is identical to the first today in that the variables lean to Pitt but there are some on Denver that are very strong. In addition the models show the line to be about right. I see this game the same as I see the first today. Nothing there to wager on either side. So today is a pass for me in the NFL.
First game today in the NFL starts in about 20 minuites:
Betting is 66% on Carolina and the line has moved from -2.5-123 to -2.5 -113. Its at -3 at a few books. Variables point to Seattle however unlike yesterday there are also some strong variables on Carolina. I had both dogs as plays yesterday but today a much different story. Models show very little edge to either side. Another consideration is that the line opened at -3 at some books. If your considering Carolina ok but if your considering Seattle tough to fade a move off of 3 and only get +2.5. For me its an easy decision as to what I consider the game is a pass.
7-1 on Plays Saturday for +6.58 units. The best part to me is all plays were easy winners except for Green Bay +7. For that game to go from a tie to a win was nothing short of a miracle. And you can thank it all to Aaron Rogers. What a miracle drive and a miracle hail mary pass. Take a look !
And if you want to see his 4th and 20 pass on the same drive with 50 seconds left that resulted in a 61 yard gain:
What a finish to regulation. I have to say Aaron Rodgers is beyond excellent. This is the reason football is so popular. Players like him and last minute drives like that. Its the next day and I am still excited!
Now back to business. That was the only play that was even close Cornell +9 kept it close the entire game and lost by 4, W. Virginia +6 again kept it close the entire game and lost by 2, Missouri +14 never in doubt lost by 9 , Minn +11 never in doubt lost by 7, Sacramento +4.5 in the NBA lead most of the game and won the game by 7!, Ottawa +168 in the NHL won 5-3 and finally the close one (or should I say miracle from a tie to cover Green bay +7.
Setups went 4-3 in college hoops, 1-0 +109 in NHL and 0-1 in the NBA. One thing to note is the setups have been tightened up substantially and its showing. They are almost at the point to consider wager on in and of itself. Not quite yet though. But its interesting how setups can eventually turn into plays the next season. The NFL totals have been solid. So solid they will be plays next season. As you add setups that have shown the ability to perform in real time as they had back tested out to plays your chance at profitability year end increases. Some setups do not perform real time anywhere near what the testing showed. But some do. My requirements for adding setups into plays is very strict. I have a number of different hurdles setups have to go through before I put my money on them!
Now we have had this service a subscription service for several months now. In college hoops there have been 114 plays so far this season and we are hitting a solid 58.9%! That number is exceptional. In the NHL we have had 96 plays this season and we are in the plus side 12.24 units. That’s a 12.75% ROI. Again an exceptional number. In the NBA only 19 plays and so far 10-9. Not much to say about that the NBA is one of the toughest sports to handicap. Only a small number of teams with a large number of games. NFL 9-12 for the regular season plays and 2-1 so far post season. Setups is where the NFL has been exceptional this season going 17-9 on totals or 68.3%! On sides 12-4 or 75%. College football 9-11-1 regular season 5-7 bowl games.
Whats is interesting and significant about the above is 1. small losses in football for the season. Typically football is about as solid as you can get with my handicapping. But the play size is very small and its not unusual to have results like for a season or two. 2. college hoops now is running away with being the best sport I handicap. For 3 or 4 seasons now when I decided to start handicapping college hoops it has been better then anyone would of imagined. Very little draw down and results approaching 60%. I have mentioned before that college hoops is broken up into 3 seasons. Some say 4. Pre conference and ncaa tournament time have historically produced the most plays with stellar results. Conference play historically has been tough going although I made a number of tweaks during the off season and they are showing in my results. The number of plays is still less but results solid.
That brings us to the NHL. NHL is one of the two money line sports I handicap. The handicapping of Money line vs spread lines is like night and day. When I started out with this site almost 13 years ago I lumped all sports into the same category. Since then that approach has morphed into not only handicapping each sport differently but handicapping the different “seasons within a season” differently. In the NHL during the off season again I spent a lot of time analyzing the differences in money line and spreads as it relates to handicapping. I completely re hauled the NHL with a entirely different view of the significant variables and models as it relates to money line betting. The results have been great. Its nice to see the hours and hours I put into that produce results the first season.
Now what is promising about the NHL results is I did the same thing with Baseball. And I would not be surprised that baseball follows the same path as the NHL has in terms of profitability. I am actually looking forward to MLB this season:)
I have been asked over the last few months why I turned this into a subscription service. First let me tell you that the cost of what I do in cash outlays for everything I use for data, hardware and software has increased every year to a point I would be embarrassed to tell you what I spend yearly. In addition my time I spend daily has increased to the point its now full time for me. I used to spend 50 hours or more a week at the poker tables. Now I spend it in front of the computer handicapping and trading. Finally I have always had a promise I would not turn my site into a subscription site until I was confident that the plays I put out were positive Ev and that I had a reasonable expectation of producing winning years each and every year. It took me 12 years to reach that point. For those of you that have been following me from the start you know the path I have taken.
So that is where we are at now. I would like to see this service not only turn into something that everyone that joins is proud of but also a service that month after month you learn something new about handicapping.
For those of you that read this site regularly I would ask you to pass on through sharing buttons, posting on other sites, telling other handicappers to take a look. There is only so much time in the day and I need all of you to help me grown this site to become the premier handicapping site on the web. Spread the word! All it would take would be one post a day on another site or a share day to your facebook friends from each of you.
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