The Stock Market is on the rebound this morning with the Nasdaq leading the way. Metals are off but most everything else is on the plus side.
That to me looks like a slightly positive premarket.
To me, the stock market looks like it is developing a triangle pattern which is a compression pattern that suggests a big move when we break out (either way)
My view is we break within downside withing the next 2 weeks. In addition, depending on how bad the news is it could be a very significant break.
I say that because it appears we are quickly heading into the end game of the Mueller probe.
And at this point it appears that regardless of their official position that the president is not a target, it seems clear that he is not only a target but the primary target.
The reasons I have come to this conclusion are:
1. The nature of the questions that were leaked the the probe would like the President to answer
2. The comments of Judge Ellis during the argument in the Manifort case
3. The fact that the President now has new very high profile attorneys. One of which has the expertise of handling impeachment defenses.
4. The idea that Kerry, Obama, and Clinton are crossing the world talking to foreign leaders. The most recent being Kerry having secret talks with Iran currently.
They seemed not to be concerned in the slightest about not only the appearance of impropriety but also any potential violations of the law that their actions might trigger.
5. Brennen recently coming out saying that the House Intelligence committee’s findings were nonsense and to wait for what Mueller say.
6. Comey running around the country on a book tour without regard for his potential criminal exposure.
7. Finally the IG report is out in about 10 days and I suspect that there will be something out of Mueller contemporaneous or before the IG report.
8. The Senate intelligence committee has not closed up shop, if anything they have no slowed up in their what has now arguably turned into a McCarthy era starchamber.
9. The discussion has now shifted as to whether the President can be indicted while in office and whether he can be forced to testify.
Those are just a few of the indications that we are heading for a constitutional crisis.
If my observations are true we are heading for a move lower that will shock even the most experienced market traders.
Just look at last week when NBC came up with the fake news that the President’s attorney had been wiretapped. Within minutes after this came out the market dropped 250 points! Then came the correction that it was untrue. And the market rebounded.
This is not the first time we have seen the new media cause large quick drops in the market by giving out news that later is proven to be false.
So that is the environment we are in right now. In my opinion, its a very high risk market right now for the sole reason that the political atmosphere has reached such a toxic level, anything can happen right now.
And in my judgement the way things are going I expect the worst. I see no letting up by anyone to bring sanity into our political dysfunction. If anything everyone is doubling down on their quest for a constitutional crisis.
The good news? China and N. Korea. China has reached an agreement with the U.S. for some trade concessions. This means tariffs are most likely dead in the water. They were used as a bargaining chip and has it turns out effectively.
N. Korea appears to be heading in the direction of a big win for the White House and the World. I would be very surprised if the end result is not a real denuclearization of N. Korea.
I know history does not support that, but(and I hate to use this phrase) this time appears to be different:)
If I were a betting man I would say the odds are at least 2 to 1 in favor of the White House negotiating a complete denuclearization of N. Korea.
Timing will be everything. It will most likely be tough to get it exactly correct. But, keep this in mind as you invest this month.
And if you can time it right you might be able to either hedge against it or perhaps get a very profitable trade out of the plunge I see coming.
Good Luck Trading today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks