“Rick, I’m not real well versed on nueral networks, do you know how well your model accounts for injuries? Another handicapper who plays a lot of injury angles is fading Weber State with (G) Lillard out. With your record the last 2 years, I gotta figure injuries are handled pretty well, but I wanted to ask.”
My response:
Injuries are handled a bit differently. They are not taken into account in the neural programs. But before I place a wager I take a look at any key injuries and then make a decision as to how to handle that.
The first assumption I make is that the injury is already in the line. And more often then not the line is over adjusted. But usually i avoid key injuries if they are the first game out. (except in the nba where that is usually a high percentage play betting on the team that has the injury the first and second games following the injury)
As to Lillard…he has been out now for over 10 days…so I do not rule out the game.
Another comment:
“Rick, when you say, “these lines have gotten much stronger.”, do you mean it is tougher to find plays or do you mean the advantage on the plays you find is thinner, on average, then it was earlier this season? “
My response:
Yes advantage is much less then earlier. The numbers early in college hoops are probably the best handicapping opportunities in any sport. That is why most books are very late in putting out the numbers early and also limit betting amounts the first month of the season. Usually when conference play starts…you can count on things getting much tougher.
RickJ
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Rick,
often times the lines in these games have been bet down somewhat by the time I'm able to get them in, as mentioned/expected, however there's the somewhat rare instance where the line improves (seemingly) in our favor. example: 749 new mexico is now -3, 767 miss st. now +15… but 808 weber which opened at a pick is now +2. From what I've tracked thus far these plays have a lower winning %, which seems to make sense as "betting the steam" is usually profitable. But the sample size is rather small, and I also can't help but think, "hey the line improved, RickJ knows his stuff, why not bet?"
(In this specific case I'd assume the change was due to the injury status you mentioned, and that would lead me to believe the public is overreacting and the play is +ev, but aside from that…)
Are these games where perhaps one should stay away? If not, what are your thoughts on say, taking better odds by still betting on Weber at a pick and forgoing the +2?
Was hoping you could shed some light on this. Thanks again for the tremendous service you provide. Wish you all the best.
Weber St is +2 b/c a very well-respected and successful service released the other side.
The public does not move obscure CBK lines, influential bettors, services, and those with a following like Rick do.