Thank you for sharing your handicapping insights with us daily. I have been a follower of yours since the beginning over 5 years ago.
I noticed in your Nfl today 2 things. 1. You have Buffalo as a betting play but its not in your hilton picks? 2. Phil was -6.5 in the Hilton contest but is now -8.5 and -9 on the betting line. Why didnt you include phil in your hilton selections?
Earlier in the week Buffalo was around 38 to 39 % of the public on the team. It appeared to me that the movement was towards the 40% level which takes it out of consideration for me. So I passed on it being in the Hilton picks. Today the percentage went down to 33% putting it a play. If I were turning in the plays today Buffalo would be in…and perhaps I would take out houston.
Phil is one of those situations that come out time to time when there are unresolved injuries after the hilton puts out their line.
I passed on phil for several reasons. The primary one is as I view the game -6 is a pretty accurate estimation of what the line should be if not lower. In addition I knew that everyone would be jumping on this in the contest and being in the middle of the pack this looked like a reasonable opportunity to pick up a point from the field. You really do not get in the top 20 out of over 500 entrants by taking selections that everyone else is going to take.