“I have one question Rick. Since the public doesn’t bet college basketball that much, and you don’t consider it in your own handicapping, why would you include college basketball in this new system? Thanks. “
That is a very logical question. I dont include the public sentiment in my basketball handicapping since to date I have not found it a significant indicator that has any value in predicting the right side of the game. That is not to say the public is not betting the game but only to say I have not found it significant in what they do.
Now saying that what I am attaching significance to is a high Percentage with a move contrary to the percentage. And then only to use that game as a subset to do further handicapping on.
Normally when then is a high percentage on one side what you typically get is the line moving with the betting to make it more attractive to the other side . So one would expect if you have over 70% of the betting volume on one side and the line moves opposite that…something must be going on. I feel that something is more then likely an indicator that the books dont care how much action is on that side since they feel they are on the right side of the game. Not only that they feel a line move contrary to what the action is, for whatever reason, is the right movement on the game. Usually its because they have been shown the way by reliable bettors that are in the minority.
As I had indicated before this approach is better for some sports then others. But I think it has enough merit to taking a further look at the game where before I might not have considered it at all.
So its just another subset of games I have included to handicap.
Hope this clears it up a bit.