“Do you just look at the percentage of bets, or do you consider the number of bets also? Some of these games are very lightly bet. “
Both…need to have around 1000+ bets for me to consider the game for an ERLM.
“On 12/29/10 you said, “Another thing…these lines have gotten much stronger. I would be very reluctant to chase the numbers…”
Yet your RLM Plays are doing precisely that: waiting to bet until the line has moved 1/2 or 1 point. How much value is left in a line that has already moved a full point? “
That commented specifically applied to chasing steam..and in particular my steam. The reverse line move plays are a different subset. Essentially the number has changed from the opener but stays on that new number. I evaluate the game based upon the new number and if my handicapping indicates positive on the new number with a reverse line move then I bet the game.
Now if I put out the play in the morning as an ERLM and you get steam off of that then my comment about chasing steam applies.
“Rick- Chicago is back to the -9.5 opening numbers. So basically, one group hit Toronto overnight when the limits are lower, and since then the move has been steadily on Chicago. So wouldn’t Toronto no longer be a play even under the angle you mentioned this morning? And if you ever do add this kind of play to your repertoire, wouldn’t you absolutely have to wait until right before game time, as opposed to the rlm plays, which also qualify under other criteria? Thanks,and keep up the good work.(There’s still 90 minutes until the Chicago game starts, so if there’s a late move on Toronto, I would like your original angle even more. But it’s also possible Chicago closes at -10+, which isn’t so unreasonable with Noah out. Again, to me this points out why these kind of angles have to be waited on). “
I dont think you need to wait. Your giving credibility to the early reverse line move…and what happens after that for you evaluation is irrelevant. If there is steam on the other side then its just a who is right situation. Your just looking at things from two different perspectives….one is based upon the overnight action and the other is based upon action up until game time.
Now….let me say that I am very satisfied with the comments I am getting . The last thing I want is for people to blindly follow me. I want to encourage gaining insights into all the variables that interact to eventually produce positive ev plays. Ideally successful handicappers will find elements of this blog to get something positive to what they already are doing. And for beginning handicappers to gain insight and knowledge into how complicated this process really is. And for the gamblers to realize that you either take the jump to thinking right about these things or lose your money as the rest of the public does year in and year out.
I am reading a stock book right now and there is a great quote that applies equally to handicapping:
” Humans are intuitive creatures; Markets are inherently counter intuitive. Our brains are not set up to do this stuff right”
This applies equally to handicapping. To be successful you really have to take a counter intuitive approach.
Years ago I used to study yards gained, fumbles, pass complettion percentages, etc..and always wondered how when I had everything figured out I lost. You see that is one of the ways the public does it. Similar to Oakland playing San Fran midseason. All the public had to see was Oakland getting +7.5 playing well against a team that is 0-6. That really says it all:)
In any event…thanks for the comments….