Is the stock market getting to you yet? If you have noticed the character of the stock market has changed dramatically the last few months.
We have gone from the low volatility bull to the extremely high volatility bull. In addition, there are signs that the bull may be getting much weaker and subject to reversing.
Now I know that is something that is hard to get your arms around if you new to trading. But regardless of what you have observed, markets do go down. And on occasion, there are bear markets:)
The question is when fundamentally can you expect a deep correction or a bear. One very reliable fundamental is a recession.
Typically once we dip into recession territory or shortly before you will notice a change in the direction of the markets. So it’s a good idea to monitor how close we are to a recession. A good place to get a good idea where we are at in the business cycle is
Each weekend a new report comes out that gives a great breakdown of recession odds and links to other sites where that info is obtained.
In addition, the site gives a very good analysis of what to expect going forward. It’s the best free site I have found for giving an overall analysis of the markets.
Conclusions from last weekends report indicate a 9-month recession risk of 15% per 1 variable. There are 3 others also.
I exited all my mean reversion trades a few days ago before this dip. As we stand right now I would need at least another big dip to consider entering mean reversion trades again.
Markets are up slightly 30 min before the open. Metals are the only thing in the red this morning on my screen This to me is a positive premarket bias.
I received a few emails regarding my bottom reversal trades and why I do not post more of them.
These trades do not come along very often. They require very specific circumstances to trigger. On another day I will go through some of the considerations. But I typically have a basket of stocks to watch for this trade.
I do take trades I do not post. The main reason I do not post those is they are time specific. Execution time is essential and the delay in posting would hurt the profitability. But the ones I do post have a lot of flexibility in the timing of the trade.
Finally, today is NCAA BB Tournament time. For those that have joined me for the Hoop plays, let’s see if we can have a fun and profitable NCAA BB Tournament.
I not only send out my plays via my private twitter feed but also give a breakdown of each game sent via email, with comments on the game.
If you wish to join us I can have you signed on within minutes!
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks