With College Hoop Conference Tournaments winding down for the NCAA Tournament, this is a rare Saturday morning I have some time to take a look at some political odds.
First lets go over my last three posts:
On Jan. 13th the odds was 5 to 2 that Trump would finish his first term. My suggestion back then was that laying the 5 to 2 had a lot of value, and that the odds were closer to 100 to 1. Today looking at the odds they are now up to almost 4 to 1. It will be much higher after the Mueller report.
On Feb 16th, I discussed the odds of Trump being impeached his first term. The odds at that time was 55 to 45 that he would not be impeached his first term. I suggested taking the 45 to 55 on impeachment had value. I put the odds at close to 2 to 1 he would be impeached. The odds have now moved to 3 to 1 he will not be impeached his first term.
So the odds have moved sharply the other way. I would still take the 3 to 1. But as I pointed out the value on this bet is far less than the first one we discussed.
My last post discussed on February 19th was regarding the odds of McCabe being indicted by the end of the year. The odds was 2 to 1 against. I sugested taking the 2 to 1 as I felt the odds were closer to 2 to 1 in favor of indictment. This morning the odds sit just under 2 to 1 against. I still think this has excellent value for the reasons in the article.
Now this morning looking over the political odds I see one that to me looks like it has some value. It involves Biden running in 2020. The odds are about 6 to 1 that Biden will run. I would take the 6 to 1. I view it as 2 to 1 at best that he will run for a variety of reasons.
First, I do not think he has the desire to run. From all I see he does not have the will to put in the intense effort that will be needed. Second, Biden has a lot of baggage that he has escaped. Running for President will bring to light a lot of this baggage, both by his primary opponents and in the General if he gets that far. Biden, regardless of what you think about him is politically savvy. He knows his time is long past. He cannot get the base. And that brings me to number 3. The base has no taste for Biden. An older white male, who is left center. Not a chance he gets accepted with open arms.
So take the six to 1 and bet on Biden to not go off the deep end and throw his hat in the ring. It would be out of character for him to do that.
As always, I give the following Caveat. I am a Trump supporter. Not because of any particular ideology but because its my opinion he is the best person for the Country. I am not burdened by any particular ideology and am issue driven. So I see things a bit differently then most. More as an outsider looking into the chaos that has evolved. And as I have always said, when there is chaos there is value:)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
Skype : riccja