9:30 A.M. Update
An interesting game early today in MLB:
Betting is 43% on the Home favorite and that is the highest % number it’s been since the line went up. What’s interesting is despite the fact that <50% of the betting is on pitt the line has moved from -110 to -144. Now that is quite a move without a pitching change. My models and variables are neutral on the game but this game illustrates that big moves that are happening in MLB this season. Every day we get these types of moves on one or two games. My explanation for it is that its related to a service putting the game out as a play. Hard to imagine this type of move without a pitching change to be anything but that. I am passing on the game but if you like Pitt I doubt there is much value there anymore:) Wednesday turned into a very busy day in MLB. We had 4 plays and 4 big move games. Much busier than most days for a typical mid-week baseball schedule.
Our 4 MLB plays went 1-3 with Pitt -112 losing 6-7 as a 1 unit play. In the 1/2 unit plays St Louis +210 won easily 7-2 while Seattle +110 lost 1-5 and Atlanta +165 lost 0-3. It was looking like our 1 unit play was going to be a laugher as Pitt had a 6-1 lead. But you know how that goes:)
Let me ask. How many who bet this MLB game when San Fran went ahead 7-6 in the 6th felt anger, despair or why me? These are feeling often elicited by sports bettors when things are not going their way. Depending on the intensity of those feelings it would be a good time to check your psychological involvement in the sports betting process.
Ideally, the reaction would be very similar to what “Spock” would feel. His statement to Kirk ” Hmmm…It’s not logical to hunt a species to extinction” says it all. If you decide to bet sports as a daily endeavor then it’s not logical at all to beat yourself up emotionally when you take a beat like Pitt. It’s similar to the poker player that gets beat on the river by a 1 outer. It happens and is a very logical predictable event.
So the lesson is, do not slip into the psychological games many gamblers slip into. Once you get that aspect of gambling harnessed your well on your way to becoming a consistent positive EV player. No money should be put at risk until you have this aspect of your personality completely under control!
We also had 4 big move games. These are games I feel have a lot of room to move before game time. They are not plays however some turn into plays by game time.
Games lines at the close:
Arizona +145 (+.09)
Pitt -115 (+.17) M
TB +112 (-.10)
Seattle +115 (-.03)
A mixed bag of results slightly going toward the big move side. The M reflects a game that could of resulted into a middle.
Today so far with the light schedule there is 1 big move game that was sent out last night.
These big move games can be used in a number of ways by handicappers. The best approach would be to use them as a filter in your own handicapping. I do not recommend betting these or playing for a middle unless you’re with Pinnacle or Matchbook. Even then it would not be easy to come up with something sensible to make middling work for you.
But as a value filter, these are excellent!
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RickJ’s Handicapping Picks