VERY IMPORTANT TO READ:
It’s been 12 years since I have updated this so it’s long past due. First, let me mention that everything I have said below is true today with the exception of the sample size. The sample size now is large enough to assume that there is a high probability that this is a positive EV method for my handicapping techniques.
However, this does not in any way reduce the importance of bet sizing. Typically most gamblers have no method of sizing their bets with the exception of the tendency to increase their bet size when they are losing.
That is human nature. In order to be a successful sports bettor, you have to be obsessive with bet sizing. It’s the only way you will survive the ups and downs.
For subscribers, you need to do the following immediately:
1. Set aside a betting bankroll in an amount if you happen to lose it all it will be of little concern for you.
2. Make each and every wager 2% of your bankroll. So as your bankroll increases so will the size of your wager. And of course vice versa.
3. Do not for any reason diverge from the above. Discipline is key in sports betting. If you do not have it you will not survive. You can take that statement to the bank!
4. The more you follow this routine the faster it will become 2nd nature for you. At first, you are going to have trouble with it as it fly’s opposite of human nature. But if you want to be successful then you have to be able to do what other cannot.
5. For subscribers, I am around most of the days for advice and consulting. Take advantage of it. It’s one of the most important parts of your subscription. There is not a situation in betting I have not encountered over the years. I want you to be successful and take advantage of my experience and expertise.
6. Reread the portion below every month or so.
Original Caveat from over 10 years ago:
1. This method I am using has been applied to less than 5000 bets. This is not conclusive to the long run profitability of this method. It’s encouraging but in no way a guarantee making money.
2. If you lose money betting these plays if you need to blame someone for your loss the only one you have to blame is yourself. You elected to make these bets.
3. If you don’t have a good money management strategy in place you in all probability will lose all your money because of variance.
4. at some point I would expect a 15 to 20 unit drawdown…..if you are betting an amount that this would cause you a problem….you are betting too much. and finally
5. There are very few people that are equipped financially and psychologically to handle the ups and downs of gambling on a daily basis. If your not a professional every instinct you have will attempt and probably will sabotage your success.
Human nature runs completely contrary to being a successful professional gambler. If this discourages you from following these plays then I have accomplished what I have intended to accomplish. For those of you, that understand all of the above…good luck!
An email with a subscriber that points out some important issues in sports betting: