Required Reading For all!!!

VERY IMPORTANT TO READ:

It’s been 12 years since I have updated this so it’s long past due. First, let me mention that everything I have said below is true today with the exception of the sample size. The sample size now is large enough to assume that there is a high probability that this is a positive EV method for my handicapping techniques.

However, this does not in any way reduce the importance of bet sizing. Typically most gamblers have no method of sizing their bets with the exception of the tendency to increase their bet size when they are losing.

That is human nature. In order to be a successful sports bettor, you have to be obsessive with bet sizing. It’s the only way you will survive the ups and downs.

For subscribers, you need to do the following immediately:

1. Set aside a betting bankroll in an amount if you happen to lose it all it will be of little concern for you.

2. Make each and every wager 2% of your bankroll. So as your bankroll increases so will the size of your wager. And of course vice versa.

3. Do not for any reason diverge from the above. Discipline is key in sports betting. If you do not have it you will not survive. You can take that statement to the bank!

4. The more you follow this routine the faster it will become 2nd nature for you. At first, you are going to have trouble with it as it fly’s opposite of human nature. But if you want to be successful then you have to be able to do what other cannot.

5. For subscribers, I am around most of the days for advice and consulting. Take advantage of it. It’s one of the most important parts of your subscription. There is not a situation in betting I have not encountered over the years. I want you to be successful and take advantage of my experience and expertise.

6. Reread the portion below every month or so.

RickJ

Original Caveat from over 10 years ago:

1. This method I am using has been applied to less than 5000 bets. This is not conclusive to the long run profitability of this method. It’s encouraging but in no way a guarantee making money.

2. If you lose money betting these plays if you need to blame someone for your loss the only one you have to blame is yourself. You elected to make these bets.

3. If you don’t have a good money management strategy in place you in all probability will lose all your money because of variance.

4. at some point I would expect a 15 to 20 unit drawdown…..if you are betting an amount that this would cause you a problem….you are betting too much. and finally

5. There are very few people that are equipped financially and psychologically to handle the ups and downs of gambling on a daily basis. If your not a professional every instinct you have will attempt and probably will sabotage your success.

Human nature runs completely contrary to being a successful professional gambler. If this discourages you from following these plays then I have accomplished what I have intended to accomplish. For those of you, that understand all of the above…good luck!

RickJ

An email with a subscriber that points out some important issues in sports betting:

I try to make it as simple as possible. I do not lay more than -110. At -110 your starting with 5% vig to overcome.

Now one could argue that when books put the line out at -115 -105 or -120 even your still only giving up 5%. And that is a pretty good argument with the exception that individual books move their line with the action. And while it may be -115 on Bovada on another book it might still be -110. So the reality is your giving up 7.5% vig on -115 if the real line should be -110.

Rather than trying to compare all the books and figure this out I just do not lay more than -110. Now the exception to that(aside from money line betting ) is only in the NFL. It centers around a 3 line. If I have a choice of laying -110 and getting +3 or laying -115 and getting +3.5 then I lay the -115. But that is the only time I consider playing more than the -110.

As to increasing your bet size to one full unit on -105 lines. I do not recommend it. Just consider yourself lucky that the book you’re using allows you on this game to only have a 2.5% vig. But keep your bet size the same.

My rule is that whatever you can do to minimize the effects of variance you do it. The reason is that if you are a positive EV gambler then your only risk is variance. And the reality is variance breaks most positive EV gamblers because they do not understand it nor do they bet size to minimize its effects.

I could talk and talk about variance and yet 90% of the bettors that read it will either ignore it or think it will not happen to them. That is human nature at work.

Consider this. I started out the subscription site and before March, I was hitting almost 60% in college hoops with the NHL up around 13 units. And yet there were a few subscribers that dropped the service and not only that a few of those were angry when they dropped it. So how do you explain that when the results to the end of February were far better than expectations? It is the lesson of Human Nature.

You see it at poker all the time. No matter how good of cards a player is dealt some are going to find a way to lose. And it happens all the time. The human mind in most people is designed to react to fear and greed in a manner that assures them loses. If I were a psychotherapist I could probably give a more detailed explanation. But 35 years trying jury trials and another 15 years playing poker I can say that I am a very good student of human nature.

So finally, we get back to the theme of keeping it simple. The more complex the more you get human nature involved. Your bet sizing and betting should be rule based to minimize your mind interfering with your success!

RickJ

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