I received an email last night that better explained a response to a comment I made the other day on the 30-60 hold em game at the Bellagio and betting teasers and parlays:

“Rick,
Just had to comment on a couple of things I read in response to some of your fan mail. First, the question of collusion in the 30-60 limit holdem game at the Bellagio. I consider myself somewhat of an expert in this area. I play in this game EVERY day. I can say that there is nothing to worry about. If there was anything fishy going on, well let’s just say, it would never get past me or many of the other regular players, I assure you. It would be a pretty bad spot to even try. Especially now that shuffling machines are being used and counts the cards automatically. A lot of players may have concerns about a foreign language being spoken during the game, which is not allowed, but not always enforced. My experience is that those players never win anyway, so, I doubt that there is any collusion or they are very bad at trying. Most cheaters are so stupid they still can’t win. In limit holdem, collusion could really backfire for those involved since the character of the game using common cards would work against the cheaters big time when you have the best hand. I would love to be put in the middle with the nuts. Collusion would be much more of an edge in games like stud or razz, not limit holdem.
Also, in regards to parlays and teasers. Something that I have been doing successfully for a long time is doing two team NFL teasers where I take really good teams that are playing not so hot teams where the good team is laying 6.5 or 7 points and teasing them down to a half point or one point. (I HATE laying points). So basically, all they have to do is win straight up. The juice is only 110 to win 100. The juice used to be even money, but the sharpies were beating the books so bad that they changed. The key is to only do teasers for key numbers, for instance six point teasers, tease down with numbers like -6, -6.5, -7. Tease up with numbers like +1.5, or +2.
In MLB I mostly bet on dogs, however, every once and while I see a couple of games the I handicap as being so mismatched, that I will do a two team parlay that usually will pay plus money or close to it. This gives you an opportunity to be involved with less risk. (I also hate laying juice in baseball) This is much better than making flat bets because if they’re big favorites, if you lost one game you would lose money anyways. You could actually risk half a normal bet and win a regular unit or more this way. If the two games are at different times and you have access to a bookie, I would bet on the first team by itself and then if it wins take the bet and the winnings and parlay it yourself on the second game. This will pay more than a regular parlay, but betting access is the key to doing that way.”

My response:

Thanks for sharing this. I know there are some sharp handicappers that follow my plays and its always nice to hear what their thoughts are. My methods are limited to what I know best. And its only one way to handicap.

I agree 100% on the Bellagio. I played in the 30-60 holdem game at the Bellagio for several years…until I started playing omaha 8 almost exclusively….and found no collusion at all. Many of the players are tough players that take the game seriously…but you also get a nice mix of casual players and tourists on many days also.

I really welcome email and comments like this since they are very informative and helpful for everyone.

Thanks

Rick

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  • Anonymous
    Reply

    Just to add to something in that e-mail you received Rick… The best teasers are teasing -7 to -8.5 home favs down to under a FG. You don't get enough value teasing -6.5 or -6 favs b/c you're already being given the 7 for free. The main idea is to cross both the 3 and 7 with teasers b/c they are so valuable. Also, I know good teaser prices are hard to find in Vegas, but for those who bet offshore, you should be looking for +180 3-teamers or +300 4-teamers, which are superior to -110 2-teamers.

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