I received the following email last night from another serious sports handicapper that I believe is very informative:
“There are a handful of guys that i know of that are moving lines. Im SURE there are other groups, but the main guys that i know of right now, are myself, you, and RAS (Ed from bettingtalk.com).
I know another sharp handicapper is also betting and im SURE that his picks are moving lines, but he doesnt release so theres no following there to steam the lines the way the lines move with you and RAS.
Anyway, i only make note of this to address the latest blog entry you posted. All of these groups are winners. All likely are hitting in the same range that you are in terms of win %. Its EXTREMELY likely, assuming a win % of 60%, lets say over the course of a significant sample that if/when you do see resistance or a line move against a pick that youve already released….. that your win % on that particular subset of picks should figure to be significantly less than your normal win rate.
I think its also fair to say that whoever is releasing, and consequently moving opposite you, on those specific games are also likely to hit well below their normal win rate on that specific subset of picks.
I happened to bet three games today……. Montana State, New Mexico and St Mary’s.
I think its fair to say that i expect the Montana State and St Mary’s plays to hit at a far lower rate than my normal picks, but given the extra value i got on them based on your release, im not sure how much less.
Its an interesting dynamic to say the least, but i just figured id weigh in.
I know you dont get caught up in all this stuff and quite frankly, i think its probably best in a lot of ways. You do your thing and put in your picks. Whatever happens from that point forward doesnt and in that manner shouldnt concern you, but obviously the dynamic is much more complicated for those following you :).”
My response:
This is really a very informative comment. As I have said before I am not the only handicapper out there that are scouring these numbers for value. Also I can tell you I am far from the best handicapper out there. There is some serious money to be made in sports….” NOT EASY MONEY” …but money to be made. But you have to handle the downswings and upswings.
There are people like the person that sent me this email…that go much farther then I do in Analyzing these numbers. Its true…i put in my plays…and thats it. But there is much more to consider after my plays are put out. The idea of resistance is something everyone should pay attention to ..especially in college hoops where the resistance is more likely someone that has a positive ev…not like the nfl where the likely resistance is the public.
For example…the Weber st play was put out a pick….for those that missed it when the line went to montana st -2 you should of passed on the play for 2 reasons.
1. short dogs in my opinion are not playable because of the way the end game sets up in hoops
2. the move to -2 is most likely one of the sharp handicappers as explained above.
I really welcome these comments by serious positive ev handicappers since it really adds a lot to this blog.
A comment:
“Hi Rick, thanks for posting your plays. Quick question on money management.
Do you ever recalculate the size of your unit, depending on how much you’ve won total (or lost)? Say for example you started with 10k and were doing 2% per play, $200 a bet. If you upped your bankroll to say 15k, would you then adjust that 2% to make it $300 a bet? (Same question if you had lost and were down to say $5k)
I’ve seen it done both ways – where you should re-adjust so that you have a constant 2% per play no matter where your bankroll is. And I’ve seen it argued against, that if you readjust while you are losing, you are going to have to win at a higher rate just to get back to even. “
My response:
What I do if things seem to be going my way I bet 3% of my bankroll for sports…but as in now its 2%. Whatever the balance is at the start of the day indicates what my bet size will be for the day. If there are multiple wagers usually I lower my bet size to minimize the risk.
The idea in all forms of gambling is to not let variance take you out of action. Very few gamblers give enough respect to variance until they hit a extreme bell curve downswing. But then usually after they recover they go back to there old habits. Finally what happens is they either learn to respect variance or go broke. Its as simple as that.
But of course if your in the 1000th of 1 % of the population that runs good your whole life you dont need to worry about that:)
RickJ
