An email from a long time subscriber with my response, my techniques and other sundry items

An email from a long time subscriber with my response, my techniques and other sundry items

I received an email from a long time subscriber that I want to share with everyone. I think it is very informative of how I do things and where we are now in the various sports I handicap.

Question: “Any reason behind the lack of 1 unit college hoops ? Those totals were always a big part of your plays. Thanks “

My Response:

“I revamped college hoops. I went over last years results. You have been with me long enough to know the history: 

Yr. 1 in college hoops we knocked it out of the park the first half of the season. It was amazing. Honestly, I had never seen anything like it. Even my book made the comment he had never seen anything like it before:) 

Over the off season I went over the numbers and attributed it all to variance:)  I always like to attribute winning to genius but my analysis was we got very lucky. 

Yr 2 was a good one, very solid, early totals were great, sides started getting on the soft side. 

Yr 3. Early totals still solid, Sides weakening again. 

Last season, we hit a wall, early totals lost for the first time. Sides got murdered. So, as always, I analyze things during the off season. 

My conclusion is the early total gravy train is similar to the NFL gravy train that once was. Its positive EV but not easy money. 

The sides, right now there are only a few types of games that are very very solid. But they do not come up that often. We have had 3 of those plays so far this season, and are at 1-2 on those. We lost the first two.   

There are other smaller EV plays in college hoops, but, first, you have to establish some kind of solid model. It’s not like the NBA, NFL or other sports where the teams stay similar. College hoops the best players, seniors leave every year. So models early on are unreliable.  

On a positive note, the NBA looks to me now that it is going to be a 10+ unit pick up every season now. Not a lot of plays, but the EV on the ones I pick are very high. Now, of course, that can change but for now, I put them in the category of the NFL 5 years ago. 

NHL is continuing to be a grind. Take it or leave it. Still similar to what MLB sides were before we discovered the money was in the overnights. MLB is going to be a solid performer now year after year, 10+ units with the overnights included. I do not see that changing at all. 

NFL and College Football I see producing 10+ units between them each year.  

Now that is 30+ units a year if my projections are correct.

The key is to be able to adjust in sportsbetting handicapping. If you do not, the game will leave you in the dust.  Of course, you know that, as you have been with me from the start:) 

Longer than you expected I am sure, but I wanted to put together something coherent that made some sense out of it all for you. I plan on sharing this with the others also. As it should give some insight for those that are either knew or have no clue what is going on behind the scenes with my handicapping. 

Have a great holiday season.”  

I welcome questions like this. Not only are you entitled to know what is happening and why, but it give me some time to put my thoughts together similar to the above.  

Typically, I am doing things silently every day. Working continuously on handicapping and improving techniques. I am obsessive that way as most of you have found out. 

So, do not hesitate to ask any questions you wish , on any subject. In addition, you can usually catch me on Skype via riccja. Although I am going to improve my chat client this year. When I have time:) 

Let me also mention, @rickjsportplays twitter account has become more of a political venting account for me. So if your not into politics or have different political views, I suggest unfollowing that account. 

I will keep you up to date here for the informative posts I used to make on that twitter feed. I do not see that changing anytime soon. 

In my defense, I was in college in the 60s, when the turmoil was at fever peak in the U.S. So I have been through what we are seeing now. But as a youngster:)  Now, I see things from a different perspective, wiser who knows,   but differently.

I was active then, and have decided to get back into the fray:)  

For those that have an interest in how my thoughts are on the current events, Mark Leven’s interview with Jon Voight about a month ago pretty much explains it. Especially the 2nd half where Voight gives his views.

Even if your non-political, it’s a great interview, as it discusses non-political events also. It’s on youtube. 

No doubt there is something I have missed this morning:)  But, If I think of it I will post it here. 

Hope you all have a great holiday season. 

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja

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