An excellent value coming up in a political odds wager. My take and analysis.

On Friday we had two plays and went 1-1 for +.30 Units in sports betting MLB. That brings us to +16.55 Units Season to date in MLB.

Today we have 4 plays pending and 2 Bet or Pass Totals.

We are rapidly approaching the NFL and College Football season. I have been hard at work getting ready updating everything and updating all my methods.

We had a good football season last year winning in both leagues.

I have received a few emails regarding the Hilton NFL Contest. I have not decided yet whether I am entering it again this season. Its become more of a lottery play than an exercise in handicapping ability.

With over 1000 entrants and the house taking 8% off the top, there is no EV in the Contest anymore. In addition to cash, you have to be in the mid 60%. The only way you will cash if you get some help from positive variance. Without that handicapping skill alone will not get you there.

As far as the money that is open to for part of my entry, that is already covered if I decide to enter the contest.

Typically I take 500.00 of the entry and sell 1,000. The split is according to the amount paid in which no vig by me taken out.

I will decide in a few weeks whether I will enter again this season. Typically I am on the fence and then get the bug and enter. I imagine it will be the same this year.

On a completely different issue, I have a political odds section of this site. I have not updated it for awhile but in looking over the political odds there is one that seems like a very good value.

Right now you can get 5 to 1 that Cavenaugh will not be confirmed to the Supreme Court.

Now, a month ago I would not have thought it would have been a very good wager although 5 to 1 still seems to be overstated with 50 votes needed in the Senate.

But after the vote on Friday on Ryan Bounds where Rubio and Scott torpedoed the nomination just 5 minutes before the vote I see the same thing potentially happening with Cavenaugh.

Scott, I have no idea where he is coming from on this but one of Rubio’s biggest donors is Paul Singer. A vehement anti trumper.

The bottom line is there is big influence coming out to defeat Cavenaugh and keep the Supreme Court 4-4 until after 2018 elections in the hope of the Dems winning back the Senate. They need 50 votes. McCain is out of action so they can only lose 1 republican if the Dems all vote no.

In addition, there are many Republicans that would like to see Trump gone. It is unlikely a 5 to 4 Republican slanted supreme court would uphold Trumps removal from office considering the abuse of power that has taken place in the intelligence community.

However, if they keep it at 4-4 the supreme court is more likely to be deadlocked on the issue.

I put the odds more like 3-2 in favor of Cavenaugh. A big overlay getting 5 to 1.

You heard it here first:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
Skype: riccja

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