It’s time to take a look at some of the political odds. A lot has happened since my last update.
The political environment has reached the red zone! The problem is there is no indication that things will cool off anytime soon.
Battlelines are drawn and the way it looks is either Trump gets removed or people are heading to prison. No room for compromise anymore.
That’s my 1 min take:)
So let’s take a look at the political odds:
Let’s start off with a new one:
Rosenstein being Deputy AG on 6/30 is 58/42 in favor. Not very high confidence in him considering he is a lifetime veteran of the AG office.
My guess is 2/1 against him being around on 6/30. Remember Grassley’s report is coming out. And the IG report very soon. The Nunez memo was just a hint of what is coming.
Let me change that now…3 to 1 against him being around on 6/30.
Remember if the Nunez report is accurate he is one of the people that signed off on a FISA application to surveil Trump. If it turns out the Nunez Memo is proven inaccurate than my 3 to 1 will be no good. So keep that in mind if you’re considering wagering based upon this.
Odds of Trump winning the 2020 election is 3 to 1 against. Taking the 3 to 1 looks pretty attractive to me. The tax cuts alone should give him an easy win considering not 1 democrat voted in favor of the cuts.
Also so far, the results of the deregulation and tax cuts are better than anyone expected. With the Fed projecting a 5% growth rate. I had to look at the number twice as I thought I saw it wrong.
Of course, if the special counsel takes a turn for the worse for him things can change on a dime. Or if the Republicans get blitzed in 2018 things will change also.
But I have factored that in. If he did not have those uncertainties he would be closer to a 10 to 1 favorite.
That brings us to the midterm elections.
Odds are 6 to 4 that the Democrats will control the house after the midterms. I view the odds at no better than 50 50. The polling has tightened up considerably as has Trump’s approval rating taken a big boost last week.
I would put a line out 60 40 the other way.
As to the Senate, the odds are 2 to 1 in favor of the Republicans. That seems about right to me.
One thing that has changed a bit in my way of thinking for 2018 is that incumbent Republicans that are still running will most likely do a bit better than I had anticipated.
First, Bannon is gone. His debacle in Alabama will be remembered when Trump and his team consider taking out incumbents. So I think Trump will have learned a lesson from Alabama and most likely try to assure Republican Victories rather than newcomers.
Saying that the anti trumpers that are running will be in trouble. If anything, the attacks on Trump have solidified his base, solidified him as leader of the Republican party, and has independents taking a 2nd look at him. Not because he is the ideal candidate but because of what they are seeing from the opposition.
Being a long time Democrat years ago, it saddens me to see the party take the turn that it has. I also do not care much for many of the Republicans in Congress either. That is why I am firmly in the independent camp.
But my view is, that the independents are not ready for what they are seeing from the left wing of the Democrat party. I could, of course, be wrong, or perhaps it’s my being born and raised in the Midwest showing up. We will see:)
Now, I have a line I will throw out there that is an interesting proposition:
What are the odds that Rosenstein and Mueller are in the Trump camp and are essentially working with Sessions to ensnare other criminals?
I saw that theory and dismissed it out of hand as for all intents and purposed it seems clear to me that the special counsel is not there to do the President any favors, to say the least.
But, to dismiss that theory out of hand, one would have to consider that Sessions is out to do in the President also. Since he has vouched for Rosenstein in front of the Senate.
Grassley asked him point blank whether he should have someone looking over Rosenstein’s shoulder and Sessions said clearly that there was no need, Rosenstein was fine.
So you have Sessions, with a solid reputation, and a solid Trump supporter, who believes in what Trump is trying to do essentially letting all of this go on.
So the answer is not obvious. I can see both sides. To me, it comes down to whether you think Sessions is complicit in undermining Trump or has some scheme to bring others down.
Both are far-fetched to me. And as I have said before we all have incomplete information. Things are almost never what they appear in these types of things. The only thing that you can be certain of is that you cannot rely on what the media or our politicians are saying.
So what are the odds of this being a sting operation or a way to get Trump?
I say 2 to 1 in favor of it being against Trump. I had thought the odds were much higher a month or so ago, but things have changed. Session’s response that “No agency is perfect” when confronted with if true the serious abuse of power, is much too cute of an answer.
When I heard that the odds went from 5 to 1 down to 2 to 1:)
In addition, Sessions hitched when asked by Congress if he has been interviewed by Mueller. He hesitated and had to think about what to say. Maybe it meant nothing but then again maybe it did.
Of all the odds this is the most interesting to me. Its a complicated set of circumstances of which we most likely will never see in our lifetime again.
Something for a Clancy novel:)
Let me end it there. And of course, if anyone has any comments feel free to send me an email or get ahold of me on skype.
If you’re betting the Superbowl today, best of luck. I will be sitting this game out.
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks