Week 17 is coming up in the NFL very soon and there is a completely different set of rules for betting the final week. Hopefully, this will give you an NFL roadmap as to what to look for.
As a general rule, and I mean only a general rule, you should be looking to bet against teams that are in must-win situations, and also be looking to bet against teams where the other team has nothing to play for and is resting players.
This requires some work on the handicappers part figuring out what teams fall into these categories but that should not be overly time-consuming.
As an example
San Fran is at the Rams and is a 3 favorite. Not only that 76% of the betting public is on the Rams!
If this were 6 weeks into the betting season, you had best be betting on San Fran:) As bookmakers do not usually make a big mistake, which this one looks like. The more out of whack the line looks during the regular season you should be looking at the other side.
However, what is different here is that during the regular season you still need to look at the Public % number. Whereas in the final week of the NFL, for teams that are resting players you can discard the public % number completely.
So for me, I would be laying the 3 on san fran and not even hesitate. These plays on the final day of the season tend to have a very high EV.
So to summarize, the final week of the NFL comes up with 2 categories of games to look for: 1. betting against a team that is in a must-win situation and 2. Betting against a team that is resting players and the line looks substantially out of where it would be during midseason.
That’s your roadmap for a profitable final week of the NFL regular season.
I also will be doing a year-end recap of how this year has gone for subscribers and what to expect in the future. I will try to get on this before year end.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks