an overnight nba total…and comment

One overnight nba total

Boston under 199.5 (i do not bet these…for tracking purposes only)

Comment:

“Shocked. Our numbers are normally pretty close, this game…regardless of Miami QB was ranked last on my board.

What did you see that had you on the favorite? Can’t imagine the public had a huge influence here…”

My response:

this weekend was a tough one for me in the nfl…..only 1 obvious play..and it wasnt miami:)

I felt that the line was over adjusted for the fact that the third string quarterback was starting for miami. In addition there were a number of variables that I look at that also pointed to miami…with nothing pointing to chicago. In addition a short week on the road for chicago to miami…and the public was 55% on the bears….All this lead me to the inescapable conclusion to put them into the hilton contest:(

Fortunately Leroys doesnt put up numbers for thursday games..so I dont have a loss with that contest going into this weekend:)

Another comment:

I dont have the exact wording in front of me…but in essence the conclusion was that whats the difference if you lay 1 or 2 points more on these plays.

Consider this…..at best if there is an edge it is a small one. If you just move the number by 1/2 or 1 point that will make up for more then whatever edge you have on these games……On these games that move 3 or 4 points….if someone forced me to bet the final number……..i would be fading the steam…it would be a no brainer. There is no way these picks are good enough to overcome a 3 to 4 point move in the line and so far this year they are not good enough to over come the line period..10-12-1!

Well just a bad day today….one loss going into this weekends nfl games..and 2 losers in college hoops…..

Just another day in the world of sports betting:)

Rick

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  • Anonymous
    Reply

    "if someone forced me to bet the final number……..i would be fading the steam…it would be a no brainer. There is no way these picks are good enough to overcome a 3 to 4 point move in the line"

    Another thing I was wondering. No disrespect, of course, but if you are moving lines 2-4 points in some instances, I did consider the value in "fading" your pick, just for the additional points you'd be getting from the steam.

    Great blog here Rick, not just for the picks (which are always nice), but also for the discussion you generate with your readers. I hope you get as much fun out of writing this blog as we do reading it.

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