It has been a few weeks so let’s talk about whats going on in the political odds world.
A new line I see posted is:
Individual tax cut by end of 2017
Odds are 2 to 1 against. I would lay the 2 to 1 and not lose any sleep over this one. Except of course that I will not get a tax cut:)
I view the odds at closer to 10 to 1 against.
The line has not moved on the party to win the White House in 2020. It’s still around 5 to 4 in favor of the Democrats. When I first put the line out I had thought the line should be closer to 2 to 1 in favor of the Republicans. I now an thinking closer to 5 to 1.
For the Liberals that read my site, do not take this as an indication of what my preference is.It’s strictly my analysis based on what I am observing.
Flake to win the AZ primary has now moved from 6to 5 in favor to 5 to 2 against. 10 to 1 against is closer to what it should be, and that might be too low. I see no road for him to win the primary.
Ryan still sits at 7 to 1 to win the primary. Earlier I had thought 3 to 1 was closer to what it should be. I think that is a good estimate. Betting against Ryan is not bad for a long shot wager.
Heller to win the NV primary is 6 to 4 in favor of him winning. I do not think he is in as bad shape as Flake but 5 to 1 against would be closer to the true line.
Kasich to run in 2020 was even money. It’s now 55 to 45 in favor of him running. I had thought 5 to 2 in favor and now think that is still pretty close.
Control of the house in 2018 was 11 to 10 in favor of the Republicans and is now close to even money. My thought was 3 to 1 in favor of the Republicans, I know think its closer to 5 to 1.
Control of the Senate is 3.5 to 1 in favor of the Republicans, I would say the line should be about 10 to 1.
Now, in general, my lines are predicated upon both establishment Republicans and Democrats getting trounced. Non-establishment people that are running will get the nod.
As far as nonestablishment Democrats getting in, there will be a few, however, the Democrats strategy since the Republicans took over the White House has been an interesting one.
They have alienated, the military, police, people who are patriotic, and many others. They have their base, but as we say in 2016 its dwindling fast.
The establishment Republicans, on the other hand, have alienated everyone. I cannot think of much the establishment Republicans has done for their base or for the country for that matter.
So the question will be who gets the people that have been alienated and are upset with politics in the U.S. I think it will be the same group that voted for Trump and perhaps more as the Democrats move further to the left.
A wild card, of course, is what happens to Trump. A lot can happen between now and the elections. But Trump has weathered so far what everyone has thrown at him.
The argument against this is the polling. I do not give much weight in the polling. I think we are in a unique time where there are many silent Americans that just will not say they support Trump.
Now, of course, I could be way off on this:) One never knows about politics. The idea is to not be married to any particular ideology and sit back and enjoy the show.
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks