3:50 Update
One last College Bowl game tonight
Nebraska
UCLA
Betting is 61% on the Favorite with the line moving against the betting from -7 to -5. Variables favor Nebraska. Models favor UCLA. Again another similar game where the Books are moving the line with the “sharp action” So again a pass. From 7 to 5 makes it too late to consider the dog.
Also one NFL Game tonight:
Washington
Phil
Betting is 58% on the Road Dog and the line has moved with the betting from -3.5 to -3. Models favor Phil While variables favor Washington although there is a variable that points to phil tonight. A mix of signals on this game. Typically its a red flag for me when the betting is on the dog. But not enough going for it to consider Phil. So a pass on tonights game.
10:50 Update
The 2nd Bowl game of the day
Miami Fla
Washington State
Betting is 67% on the Fav Washington St and the line has moved opposite the betting from -3 to -1.5. This drop was a few hours ago and was a quick 2 pt drop. Usually this means a service widely followed released the play. These services run hot and cold so usually I like to see the move come out on the opposite side I like to get a better number. In this case I liked Miami Fla but I pulled the trigger too late.
My models now point to Washington St but the variables strongly favor Miami. So this game is a complete pass now for me. We are seeing these “sharp moves” more often then not. So if you like fading the public its no longer a viable strategy to wait. This has been the case all year in both college football and the NFL. So adjust!
Next up is
Washington
Southern Miss
Betting is 58% on the favorite with the line moving contrary to the betting from -8.5 to -7.5. Variables are neutral. Models favor Washington. Again nothing here I can see. A pass for me.
7:45 Update
The first bowl game today is
Conn
Marshall
Betting is 64% on the favorite with the line moving contrary to the betting from -4 to -3-118. At most books you can get +3.5 and some +4. Models favor Marshall while variables favor Conn. So no agreement here and am passing on this first game. Will be better spots shortly to place wagers on !
Friday had no plays and no setups but that was fine with me. I just sat down and continued on my Fallout 4 quest. I am really enjoying that game.
Also have a nice surprise from a person out of the past sending me a nice email:
“Hi Rick! I was just sitting in an airport waiting for a flight and decided to look you up.
I think of you every time I am in an airport. I think of the time you let me take control of your plane on the way to check out a location somewhere in Ohio and how I drifted up 10k feet, essentially swerving into another lane of sky traffic. That is one of many experiences I am grateful to have because of you.
Things are going great for me. After Broadway, I finished my degree in computer technology from Purdue and have been working in software engineering ever since. In all my jobs since, I make my way up the ladder to leadership. You certainly prepared me well.
I hope things are going great for you as well. You deserve all the happiness in the world. I am eternally grateful.
If I am ever in Las Vegas, dinner is on me. ”
I always enjoy hearing from people I have connected with during my journey through life. Sometimes life goes so fast we forget the good friends we have made over the years.
Now enough sentimentality back to hard and cold objectivity!
Six bowl games today with games every day up to and including Jan 2nd. Going to be a busy time for handicapper and college football bettors. I love this time of year.
Since turning my plays and setups into a subscription service it has allowed me to extend my handicapping to a full time consideration and has allowed me to purchase software and data that I had passed on before as this has been just a hobby for me over the last 13 years or so that I have been posting.
The additional items I now have already are showing an impact on my results.The best example is in the NHL where we are up over 11 units for the season. I am expecting similar improvements in MLB results. It appears to me at least based upon back testing that I can have a positive EV in every sport. We will see. That of course will not unfortunately do away with variance! If anyone figures that out I do not think we will be seeing it:)
My suggestion to those that are on the fence in subscribing is to give it a few month try. The cost is minimal compared to other handicapping services. For instance most services charge close to 1500 per sport per year! I decided not to go down that route but to make this available to everyone. If your a 50.00 better your only giving up 1 unit a month. A 200.00 bettor only 1/4 a unit. And you are not locked in . You can quit at any time at the end of your 30 day subscription.
A subscription gives you access to
1 All Plays in All Sports
2.All Setups in All sports
3. My hilton contest NFL picks as soon as I decide them
4. Access to me through out the betting day for opinions on anything related to gambling or any other subject for that matter
And best of all everything I do is completely transparent as it has been over the last 13 years. Some of said “overly transparent” But that is the way I do business. You can go through my historical results going back to day 1 when I started this web site almost 13 years ago. I discuss the good and bad runs we have had over this 13 years. Some have been incredibly good with a few amazingly bad:) But one thing that has been constant….year to year results improve. Year to year variance is less.
If you wish to take the plunge and subscribe just hit the paypal button on the top right and you can be up and going within a few min ready for Game 1 today in an hour.
Hope to see you on board!
For subscribers we have already sent out and NFL play for tomorrow. If you did not receive it let me know. Other then that plays for today will be sent out in the normal routine…1 to 10 min before game time.
Good Luck to All today
RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
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