Another 1% gap up for the markets this morning about 30 min before the open.
The numbers are a bit different than yesterday. @CL is +.11% and Vix.x is -4.21%. Both much lower than yesterday. However, TLT is -1.25%.
That, in my opinion, offsets the other two so that most likely we at least get a hold on the gap today. Watch Vix .x, if it gets in the -8% range we most likely will be off to the races today.
Much of the news propelling this is China Trade. Recently the news has been positive. The problem is we are not privy to what is really going on, but its the appearance rather than the reality that moves the markets in many cases.
Another thing resistance in SPY was at 294.04. We were in a trading range for about a month. It looks like we are going to break out to the upside with SPY sitting at 296.83 right now. What you want to watch is the follow-through.
In other words, do we hold the breakout, or reverse back below 294.04 this week. My thought is it’s more likely we reverse back. The news flow on China has been a roller coaster. Congress is coming back, and that will in all likely hood spook the markets. One thing about Congress is they are a very reliable source of chaos these days:)
I have on a number of swing trades right now, and will most likely be managing them. As far as new trades, I will be very selective right here.
The NFL starts tonight! I am in the Westgate Supercontest again this season and will be posting my usual rundowns on Sunday morning on this site. Subscribers, get my 5 picks after 11:00 on Sat. Also, I have sent out 2 plays this weekend in the NFL.
The entries in the contest is approaching the 3,000 mark. To win it you will need over 70%. To cash over 60%. Let’s see if I can get some positive variance this year. On an EV year in and year out, betting the NFL, 54 to 55% is the best you can hope for long term. The books are pretty sharp putting out NFL lines.
Contrary the public is where the value is usually. As they keep the lines at a spot where there is value. It used to be much better, but the “sharps” have changed the landscape a bit. It’s not as easy as it used to be:)
While many handicapping services come and go, at 10x the price of my subscription, mine has stayed solid over the years producing positive EV plays consistently.
If you have ever sat at the poker table with me you know that I am a pretty conservative gambler:) I pretty much play a % game with a few twists. But overall it is a positive EV play. That is the way I approach sports handicapping and the markets.
If you have an interest take a look at the post and send me an email if you have any questions.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks