At 4 #2 North Carolina is on the road against un ranked Notre Dame. Betting is 76% on N. Carolina with the line moving from -3 to -2.5 contrary to the betting. This is very similar to my comments in the Virgina Pitt game with the difference being instead of 61% its 76% on the favorite. Typically these are good setups to add to your handicapping techniques. But again for me its the only thing pointing to Notre Dame and I need a bit more.
At 9:00 #9 Virginia will be on the road against un ranked Pitt.
61% of the betting is on Pitt yet the line has moved from -1.5 to -1 and in some sports even. This is very similar to the Texas A&M game from a few days ago where a ranked road team was against an unranked home team with a high % of the betting on the ranked team and the line moving contrary to the betting. This is a setup you should be looking for especially on a day when there are 100 games. You might uncover a number of these today. Now for me that alone is not enough for it to become a play or a setup. But its a nice starting point to say the least!!!
Friday we had one play and it lost with Fairfield +11. And the game was never in doubt as they lost by 30!
No markets this morning so its a good time to discuss my Must Read portion of my site.
Let me start out by saying its my firm belief that Human nature will sabotage your success at sports betting at every corner. Human nature if its not understood and harnessed will make sure you virtually no chance at making money betting sports.
Now I know that is quite a statement but its based upon my observations of gamblers over the years. In addition I have some insights personally with harnessing my “human nature”!
As an example we went subscription for plays and setups on this site a few months ago. For the most part I have retained 90% of my subscribers which in all likelyhood is probably some sort of a record for handicapping sites. But to make my point 10% have dropped off and quit. Now I can understand that during a severe drawdown. But this is during a successful and NHL and College hoop season. I would suspect my combined record this season to date in the NHL and College hoops is in the top 3 of all sports handicapping services. For value its most likely #1 by far.
But despite that about 10% have quit the service which means they lost money. People do not quit because they are making money. Which in a round about way proves my point.
Now the reason 10% have lost money is because human nature what it is they find a way to turn a very profitable situation into defeat. They pick and choose plays, they bet on setups when I mention I do not bet them, they throw in their own handicapping techniques (ones they have lost money for years using), and they find a way to miss winning plays.
Now if you knew the time and energy I put into handicapping every day you would scratch your head. But being blessed with an obsessive nature I am unable to not do what I do. So I have chanelled it into a productive and entertaining pasttime.
Now you may ask why am I sharing the above with you. Its because its a learning experience that I think everyone can gain from. I will tell you that if you do not follow my guidelines on how to wager on my plays you might as well not start the service. You will end up being disapointed and will in all probability lose money despite we are hitting almost 60% winners in college hoops and are ahead about 15 units in the NHL.
You can take the above to the bank so to speak. You cannot leave your betting amounts to a variable as random as human nature. If you do you have virtually no chance at coming out ahead and that would be true if I put out 90% winners.
So do yourself a favor if you want to have the best chance at becoming a successful handicapper. 1. Set aside a bankroll for sports betting in an amount that if you lose it all its will not cause you any concern at all 2. wager 2% of your bankroll as your bet size. 3. When there are multiple wagers at the same time you can reduce the size of each wager a bit 4. Get your mind away from the thrill of betting to the thrill of maintaining a disciplined approach.
Well I had betting get back to work. Less then 2 hours before game time.
I am available this morining for any questions. But please send them via email rather then twitter. Much easier for me to see.
And I ask this as a favor…please spread the word about this site and service.
Good Luck Today
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