Another big gap up…Will it hold today or will the market tank again?

3:40 Update

Another   top 25 matchups coming up at 4:00

#23 Notre Dame

#7 N. Carolina

Betting is 56% on the favorite N. Carolina with the line going from -7.5 to -7. Models are neutral. Variables slightly favor N. Carolina.  Public betting on the game is subdued at 56% and really does not give many clues as to the right side. This game is about as close to a tossup as to EV and you can find. I am passing

 

 

3:30 Update

coming up top 25 matchup

#23 Providence

#3 Villanova

Betting is only 39% on the Favorite Villanova with the line moving from -9 to -8.5. Models are neutral. Variables slightly favor providence. But we have a red flag on the dog as  61% of the betting is on the dog. Most of the time the public bets the favorites so when that is out of wack you really have to start taking a serious look at the favorite. Myself I am passing on the game.

 

11:30 Update

Some free time now.  On Thursday the winners were Nebraska +6 Alabama +2.5 and Northwestern +3. Losers were UC Davis +8, Arkansas +2.5 and Georgetown +11.5. Then in the NHL we had a busy day with 3 nice dogs and went 1-2 for -.50 units.

Today is a busy day again with a full slate of games but so far nothing looks very good to me. There is some potential a bit later say after 3 or so. But we have been inundated with plays the last few days and it was likely to slow up a bit.

If anyone has any questions I am around until 1 and then it will be hit or miss until a bit later.

At long last I think my site is about done at least for the problem solving. WordPress is very tricky keeping everything working. Seems that with so many Plugins, widgets and then your theme incompatibilities are around every corner.

I should be able to comment on top 25 matchups today. So keep watch for my comments.

Rick

 

8:30 Update

A 3-3 day yesterday in college hoops and 1-2 in the NHL for a -.5 unit day less the vig. I will update a little later with the details. I busy morning in the markets and working on changes on the site. I will not bore you with the details:)

Another busy day today but looking over the games the plays are dwindling down a bit. I will keep a watch on things with updates of course.

When I get a break this morning I will update.

 

Rick

 

It was a roller coaster ride on Thursday. +100 -100 +100 and then even. Not the type of day you want to be playing around with swing trades. And if you are a day trader your timing had better be impeccable!

I am flat right now with the exception of a small position in USO. It’s been underwater since I put it on and it is a starter position. I have not seen what I want to see before putting another one on.

My strategy right now is to wait for and overbought or oversold reading and then begin mean reversion. There is not a way I can see a low-risk swing trade in this environment.

The markets are now flirting with the 200 day MA and once above that with confirmation its an entirely different ball game. But a caveat the weekly Nasdaq leading the SP500 index is moving in the other direction. So it is going to be awhile before that triggers again. That is one of my primary indicators.

We are in the midst of a mild downswing now in sports ..about 4 units for the month:) And the good news is I did not get any death threats last night! Let me share what I wrote to a subscriber yesterday:

“After a quick drop like this in 2 or 3 days it is easy to start questioning things. It takes a lot of conditioning to just take things as they come and not be concerned about the day to day fluctuations. I do not know many that can do that.

Just think about a 30 unit downswing or a 6-month severe losing streak at the poker tables. I have seen those and been a part of those. It’s no fun at all.
That’s why when I see a 10-day stretch where we are off about 5 or 6 units now I think nothing of it.”
I have been doing this for years. And playing poker 50 hours a week sometimes at 75-150 limits I have seen 100,000 upswings and one downswing of around 60,000 in a very short time. I am conditioned to variance. You either have to get conditioned to it or quit. Life is too short to let variance determine your behavior.
Forget for a minute about the plays I put out. The above advice is far more important. If you do not have the psyche for handling variance you need to either lower your bet size to 1% or even .5%. And if that does not do the trick you need to quit.
There is nothing more unnerving than a long protracted downswing when you are a gambler. It’s a test so to speak of your character, abilities, and your money management. Very few can pass the test. So if you’re finding yourself getting unnerved look at it for what it is and deal with it. That is what I am here for. To be a guide through this maze.
I was playing limit poker one day and sitting next to a player I consider a good friend(very few of those!). I hit a 50 unit downswing in 1.5 hours. Got great hands and did not win any of them. He looked at me with the questioning…when do you quit and give it up? I told him what’s the difference if you go through a 100 t0 200 unit downswing in a session or 2 months. A downswing is a downswing. If the game is good and you are playing good no reason to quit. He replied yes..but for me after 30 units I get mad…so I quit!
So each person has to manage their own personality.
Ok enough rambling this morning. Honestly, I love to guide people through this maze. But a pet peeve of mind is second guessing or being rude. I have very little tolerance for that. Just my personality at work:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com

 

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