3:40 Update
Another top 25 matchups coming up at 4:00
#23 Notre Dame
#7 N. Carolina
Betting is 56% on the favorite N. Carolina with the line going from -7.5 to -7. Models are neutral. Variables slightly favor N. Carolina. Public betting on the game is subdued at 56% and really does not give many clues as to the right side. This game is about as close to a tossup as to EV and you can find. I am passing
3:30 Update
coming up top 25 matchup
#23 Providence
#3 Villanova
Betting is only 39% on the Favorite Villanova with the line moving from -9 to -8.5. Models are neutral. Variables slightly favor providence. But we have a red flag on the dog as 61% of the betting is on the dog. Most of the time the public bets the favorites so when that is out of wack you really have to start taking a serious look at the favorite. Myself I am passing on the game.
11:30 Update
Some free time now. On Thursday the winners were Nebraska +6 Alabama +2.5 and Northwestern +3. Losers were UC Davis +8, Arkansas +2.5 and Georgetown +11.5. Then in the NHL we had a busy day with 3 nice dogs and went 1-2 for -.50 units.
Today is a busy day again with a full slate of games but so far nothing looks very good to me. There is some potential a bit later say after 3 or so. But we have been inundated with plays the last few days and it was likely to slow up a bit.
If anyone has any questions I am around until 1 and then it will be hit or miss until a bit later.
At long last I think my site is about done at least for the problem solving. WordPress is very tricky keeping everything working. Seems that with so many Plugins, widgets and then your theme incompatibilities are around every corner.
I should be able to comment on top 25 matchups today. So keep watch for my comments.
Rick
8:30 Update
A 3-3 day yesterday in college hoops and 1-2 in the NHL for a -.5 unit day less the vig. I will update a little later with the details. I busy morning in the markets and working on changes on the site. I will not bore you with the details:)
Another busy day today but looking over the games the plays are dwindling down a bit. I will keep a watch on things with updates of course.
When I get a break this morning I will update.
Rick
It was a roller coaster ride on Thursday. +100 -100 +100 and then even. Not the type of day you want to be playing around with swing trades. And if you are a day trader your timing had better be impeccable!
I am flat right now with the exception of a small position in USO. It’s been underwater since I put it on and it is a starter position. I have not seen what I want to see before putting another one on.
My strategy right now is to wait for and overbought or oversold reading and then begin mean reversion. There is not a way I can see a low-risk swing trade in this environment.
The markets are now flirting with the 200 day MA and once above that with confirmation its an entirely different ball game. But a caveat the weekly Nasdaq leading the SP500 index is moving in the other direction. So it is going to be awhile before that triggers again. That is one of my primary indicators.
We are in the midst of a mild downswing now in sports ..about 4 units for the month:) And the good news is I did not get any death threats last night! Let me share what I wrote to a subscriber yesterday:
“After a quick drop like this in 2 or 3 days it is easy to start questioning things. It takes a lot of conditioning to just take things as they come and not be concerned about the day to day fluctuations. I do not know many that can do that.
